2011 Stats:

57.0 IP

39 SO

24 BB

3.32 ERA

5.08 FIP

4.13 xFIP

3.92 SIERA

Player pages: Fangraphs, Baseball Reference

It should be no surprise to most loyal TGP readers that, considering my trenchant defense of the unduly unpopular Phillies reliever during the 2011 season, I would volunteer to write his player preview. In fact, most of what I have to say about Herndon I have already said in my series of posts on him. Just to recap: back in May when Herndon -- the Phillies' 2010 Rule 5 selection -- was at the nadir of his popularity, lugging around a hefty 9.28 ERA, I argued for a more measured approach. Yes, Herndon was struggling, but it was far too soon to label him a bum, I contended. Provided Herndon could raise his strikeout rate just a bit (something for which there was already some precedent) he could be a valuable bullpen piece.

And indeed, after a stint in AAA to, presumably, work on some things, Herndon came back and raised his K-rate and his ERA plummeted. It required no special analytical skills to arrive at the conclusion that Herndon was much better than his early results suggested. Just a quick look at his peripheral stats and a recognition that his bad luck on balls in play and flyballs was not sustainable was enough. By the end of the season, Herndon's ERA had actually dropped below his ERA estimators (FIP/xFIP/SIERA) thanks in large part to a bizarre 3.2 inning relief appearance in a 5-4 extra-inning loss to the Marlins. He logged 7 walks -- 5 of them intentional -- but only one earned run in that game.

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Last week during the Baseball Boyfriend kerfuffle, I had a knee jerk reaction. I thought the app was stupid and pandering; a reflection of the things I dislike most about the way female baseball fans are treated. I resolved to forget about the whole thing and pretend that it didn't exist.

But it kept gnawing at me. I thought about it more over the next few days, and slowly my opinion began to change. I read some good pieces about the whole dustup -- reasoned and well-thought -- but it started to seem a little bit like female baseball fans weren't allowed to enjoy attractive men. The app still bothered me, but I started to wonder why I couldn't be a baseball fan and a woman at the same time. Couldn't I find Chase Utley attractive while also knowing his OBP and SLG? And even knowing what those abbreviations meant?

And then last night I read a piece on Jezebel -- an interview with the creator of Baseball Boyfriend, Missy Wedig. It wasn't created by CBS Sports in an effort to woo female fans. Wedig's husband created the app for her fantasy baseball league when keeping track of their baseball boyfriends became too cumbersome to do by hand. After reading it, I realized that I agreed with her. Not only did I agree with her, but I wanted to start a league so I could actually use Baseball Boyfriend. And I'm not shy to admit that at all. I'm attracted to men, and I know other women who are also attracted to men. It's not a secret, and it's not a bad thing. It's part of who I am. I shouldn't have to abandon my womanhood to be a baseball fan. There is more than enough room in my brain to enjoy the game, enjoy the stats, and enjoy the men playing it.

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MILWAUKEE (AP) - On the heels of the record Nielsen ratings for the Super Bowl this year, Major League Baseball commissioner Bud Selig announced today new post-season rules for baseball. Under the new rules, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will have the opportunity each year to face one another in the World Series.

Following the release of the Super Bowl numbers, Selig went on a rampage. "Just look at the ratings the Super Bowl received this year. Over 111 million viewers. Most watched U.S. broadcast ever. It's no coincidence that this happened with New York against New England. Do you know how many viewers watched the Cardinals play the Rangers in the World Series this year? My people tell me that at its peak there were 15 million viewers, but seriously, do you believe that? I mean, it was St. Louis against Texas for god sake!"

Selig's anger immediately turned to the structure of the baseball playoffs. In football's playoff structure, according to Selig, the behemoth and immensely popular New York team can face the now indominable and also immensely popular New England team every year in football's championship game. However, because the Yankees and the Red Sox are both American League teams, they can never face each other in the baseball championship series.

"We should have an advantage over football. We play between 4 and 7 games to determine who is the champion. They play just 1. But we're lucky if we get half of their viewership total over the entire series," Selig continued.

To facilitate the possibility of the Yankees facing the Red Sox, Selig's new playoff system would pit the two teams against one another in the World Series if they both finish in the top four spots in the American League. "I'm a Brewers fan at heart, but we know the American League is the better league and that the Yankees and Red Sox are the best franchises ever. If the Yankees and Red Sox are among the top teams in that league, it's only fair that all American advertisers, I mean viewers, get what they really want -- seeing the Yankees and Red Sox play each other for the world championship."

The other teams will go through the regular playoff structure with the winner taking home the newly created Small-World Series trophy. Meanwhile, the Red Sox and Yankees would get byes to rest up so they can put their best teams on the field for the World Series.

"Under this new system, our fans all over the country would get what they truly deserve. It's clear our old system was faulty. After all, it could result in a Detroit/San Diego World Series. Or, worse still, a Colorado/Tampa Series. Is there anything else left to be said?" Selig argued.

Fox announcers Joe Buck and Tim McCarver were thrilled and released a joint statement: "There are so many teams in Major League Baseball that have nothing interesting whatsoever in their past. Frankly, we're just making shit up half the time on the air when we have to talk about these teams. If we could just talk about the Yankees and Red Sox every year, we can't imagine anyone would protest."

Selig's announcement was greeted with overwhelming approval from the rest of the major league owners. One owner not willing to be identified stated, "What Bud Selig wants, we want. We haven't challenged him ever before, so why start now?"

The lone dissenter was Fred Wilpon, CEO of the New York Mets. In a short but emotional press conference, Wilpon didn't hold back on details. "Bud came to me with the plan expecting me to agree. He said ,'you're a New Yorker, so you must want the Yankees in the World Series too, right?' I looked at him incredulously. I said, 'Bud, you know I own a New York team, too? One that could also play the Red Sox under the current structure and get that big New York/New England market? It even happened before, including a pretty famous game in baseball history?' His response was silence, pure silence. He then looked me dead in the eye and stated, 'I can count on you, right.'"

When questioned about the meeting, Selig agreed with Wilpon's account but offered his own explanation. "They're from New York. I really thought they, like all New Yorkers, support the Yankees. Fred told me he didn't, but that's just Fred being Fred. I know he does. And what's good for baseball is definitely good for the Mets. It's not like they have anything else going on for them."

The new system takes effect immediately in 2012, with the added bonus that, in this first year under the new system, the Yankees and Red Sox will face each other in the World Series no matter what. "Our ratings will be through the roof. Take that NFL," Selig gloated.

When I picked Jonathan Papelbon as a preview player for TGP this spring, I promised myself I wouldn't write about Jimmy Carter, the Bhagavad Gita, and meeting my cousin's first husband. Despite that promise, it's happening. Sorry folks. I will talk some numbers and do a Madson comparison, but I just can't duck the X factor here. Something about Jonathan Papelbon just demands that all the extraneous stuff comes out. It's a story of coming of age, loss of innocence, and regret, and it has to be told.

Papelbon's season with the Phillies will be viewed, fairly or not, through a green filter. The contract he signed didn't write itself, and he can't be blamed for it. Still, if he struggles, he will no doubt bear the fans' ire for a contract that Amaro wrote. As is the case with Ryan Howard, dissatisfaction over his piles of lucre really should be directed at the Phillies executive who was on the other end of the deal.

With the preemptive contract whining out of the way, what exactly are the Phillies likely to get this year from Papelbon, and how might his body of work compare to the closing services provided until recently by Ryan Madson, whom he is replacing?

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Contract status: 2012 - One year, $850,000
Signed by Philadelphia Phillies as free agent on December 15, 2011

2011 Statistics:

Reds -
75.2 IP
57 SO
37 BB
5.00 ERA
4.10 FIP
4.08 xFIP
4.29 SIERA

Player Pages: Fangraphs; Baseball Reference.

If the Phillies front office poobahs are to be believed, newly acquired left-handed pitcher Dontrelle Willis will be assuming a new full-time role in 2012, that of middle reliever. It's been quite a fall from Willis's career year in 2005 while pitching for the Marlins, when the then 23 year old Willis won 22 games, posted a 2.63 ERA and finished second in Cy Young balloting. The mercurial Willis has had a rough road recently, including a well-publicized stint on the disabled list in 2009 due to social anxiety disorder.

Willis signed a minor league deal with the Reds in 2011 and had a just so-so run as a starter. Peel back the layers and there are some very promising indicators for Willis in the bullpen. Specifically, his ability to get left-handed batters out. For his career, lefties have only managed a .200/.274/.288 line against Willis, whose delivery has surely been described by one Mr. Chris Wheeler as "funky." Left handed batters were even more hapless against Willis in 2011: .127/.169/.200, with 20 strikeouts against 60 batters faced, and only two walks.

So, it doesn't take a baseball supergenius to see that Willis could have a very bright future in the league as a lefty specialist, the elusive LOOGY the Phillies have been seeking.

Willis just turned 30 in January, and on a one year deal for a measly $850,000, it's hard to imagine how the Phillies relationship with Willis could turn out poorly. With minimal risk and substantial upside, the Phillies could be the beneficiaries of a terrific career resurrection if Willis is able to harness his lefty-killing abilities and reinvent himself as an elite left-handed relief pitcher.

Oh, and the career .665 OPS at the plate doesn't hurt, either.

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Re-watching the June 21st game against the Cardinals, I came to a totally shocking realization: I'm going to miss Tony La Russa.

Well, ok. I'm not so much going to miss *him* as I'm going to miss the Machiavellian way he approached the game. I always felt like Tony La Russa was trying to outsmart baseball itself, so watching his insane, overcomplicated machinations backfire on him was very satisfying.

Of course, there's backfiring, and then there's what happened during this game. The bullpen vomited up nine runs in the 8th inning while La Russa shuffled his staff around like a deck of cards. (Ha! Get it?) Up until that point, both teams were having a problem mounting any offense at all. Roy Halladay went a strong six innings despite giving up two first inning walks. The Cardinals had managed to score two runs -- one off of Halladay, and one off of Michael Stutes. The Phillies had notched only one run and five hits in seven innings against Kyle McClellan. McClellan turned in an impressive performance that would unfortunately be crapped on as soon as he left the ball game.

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