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Cincinnati Reds Roster

Countdown to Opening Day

RR Community Prospect Rankings 2011

RANK PLAYER EXPERTS
1 Aroldis Chapman
(1.0)
2 Devin Mesoraco
(2.3)
3 Yonder Alonso
(4.3)
4 Billy Hamilton
(3.0)
5 Yorman Rodriguez
(6.7)
6 Yasmani Grandal
(4.0)
7 Todd Frazier
(10.3)
8 Juan Francisco
(7.0)
9 Zack Cozart
(8.7)
10 Dave Sappelt
(18.0)
11 Donnie Joseph (11.0)
12 Kyle Lotzkar
(9.3)
13 Chris Valaika (17.0)
14 Brad Boxberger (14.7)
15 Henry Rodriguez
(19.0)
16 Kris Negron
(UR)
17 Ryan LaMarre
(13.7)
18 Ismael Guillon
(13.3)
19 Ronald Torreyes
(19.7)
20 Sam LeCure
(20.7)
21 Junior Arias
(14.7)
22 Jonathan Correa
(20.0)
23 Drew Cisco
(17.0)
24 Neftali Soto (UR)
25 Juan Duran
(UR)

Top 100 Reds

rank Player
100 Billy Myers
99 Danny Graves
98 Heinie Peitz
97 Sam Crawford
96 Chuck Dressen
95 Ivey Wingo
94 Wally Post
93 Rube Bressler
92 Greasy Neale
91 Ray Mueller
90 Aaron Boone
89 Dummy Hoy
88 Clay Carroll
87 Hughie Critz
86 Billy Werber
85 Tom Browning
84 John Franco
83 Bobby Adams
82 Germany Smith
81 Don Gullett
80 Tommy Corcoran
79 Tom Seaver
78 Hal Morris
77 Johnny Edwards
76 Dave Parker
75 Paul O'Neill
74 Harry Steinfeldt
73 Cesar Geronimo
72 Dusty Miller
71 Ed Bailey
70 Hans Lobert
69 Pat Duncan
68 Gary Nolan
67 Chris Sabo
66 Jim O'Toole
65 Dick Hoblitzel
64 Ron Oester
63 Grady Hatton
62 Bubbles Hargrave
61 Ken Raffensberger
60 Bobby Tolan
59 Arlie Latham
58 Bob Purkey
57 Reggie Sanders
56 Roy McMillan
55 Johnny Vander Meer
54 Bob Bescher
53 Jake Daubert
52 Ewell Blackwell
51 Lee May
50 Ken Griffey Jr.
49 Mario Soto
48 Joe Nuxhall
47 Leo Cardenas
46 Ted Breitenstein
45 Tony Mullane
44 Curt Walker
43 Brandon Phillips
42 Johnny Temple
41 Mike Mitchell
40 Jose Rijo
39 Miller Huggins
38 Sean Casey
37 Jake Beckley
36 Bug Holliday
35 Billy Rhines
34 Jim Maloney
33 Bob Ewing
32 Dan Driessen
31 Gus Bell
30 Pete Donohue
29 Ernie Lombardi
28 Ival Goodman
27 Joey Votto
26 Red Lucas
25 Cy Seymour
24 Lonny Frey
23 Adam Dunn*
22 Paul Derringer
21 Ken Griffey Sr.
20 Frank McCormick
19 Bid McPhee
18 Eric Davis
17 Noodles Hahn
16 Ted Kluszewski
15 Frank Dwyer
14 Eppa Rixey
13 Dolf Luque
12 George Foster
11 Bucky Walters
10 Dave Concepcion
9 Vada Pinson
8 Heinie Groh
7 Edd Roush
6 Tony Perez
5 Frank Robinson
4 Barry Larkin
3 Joe Morgan
2 Johnny Bench
1 Pete Rose

The only 2012 Reds prospect list you'll ever need

1.25th best prospect in the land.

As we did last year, we're giving the Rotten Tomatoes treatment to Reds' prospect rankings and placing that alongside our own crowd-sourced Community Prospect Rankings for your consideration. This enables us to see every instance where the experts are wrong so that you can begin your fevered letter-writing campaign. Or, more charitably, it gives us a fuller picture of where each young player stands entering the 2012 season.

The rankings that were averaged below were those of John Sickels, Kevin Goldstein (at BPro) and Baseball America. Each set of expert picks values different attributes in prospects, as does the Red Reporter readership, but at the very least this list should give credit to prospects with both high ceilings AND major-league-readiness, while smoothing out some of the disagreement.

Thanks to BK and 'creds for their hard work and dutiful chest compressions on the CPR. The system may need a little pulmonary resuscitation, but still boasts a number of very high upside prospects at premium positions whose ETAs will come due within the next few seasons. Add that to the three first/supplemental round picks the Reds will have in June and high hopes for Mr. Stephenson and several other savvy picks from the 2011 draft and I'd say the farm is far from gutted.

A few notes:

Devin Mesoraco wasn't a consensus #1, but he's as close as possible (3 of 4 #1s to go with a #2 from BPro). Along with his 1st round pedigree, high minors performance and depth of professional experience, there's no reason he shouldn't be roughly splitting time with Hanigan to start 2012. The response to Daniel Corcino was pretty coherent too. Until we see Stephenson in action and Cingrani moving forward as a starter, he's at the head of the starting pitching class.
Most divisive prospects: Neftali Soto - Top 5 for us, but didn't crack the Top 10 for Sickels; Tony Cingrani - who Sickels is very high on and thinks could be a #3 starter, while BPro puts him in the middle of the pack with a reliever ceiling; JC Sulbaran, who BPro loves unrequited; Denis Phipps; Kyle Lotzkar; Juan Duran; Gabriel Rosa
Biggest gaps between Red Reporter and "the experts": Neftali Soto, Denis Phipps, Juan Duran, Gabriel Rosa, Ryan Wright

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196 comments  | 

Red Reposter - Four days until Spring Training! Suck on that, winter!

These bats have suffered a long, cold, lonely winter. They huddle in a corner, wondering where their next swing will come from. You can help. For just a few dollars a day, you can change lives. Please, these bats are suffering for lack of pine tar, swollen and warped from lack of use. It's up to you.

Blog Red Machine compares some hitting graphs from Brandon Phillips and Drew Stubbs
There are very stark differences between the two. In fact, you aren't likely to find two hitters on the Reds who have more different plate approaches than these two. The end results are surprisingly similar though, as their career wOBAs are nearly identical (.328/.329). But Phillips has a great contact rate, and Stubbs is one of the worst in the league in that regard.

I always thought Mo Egger was old
He's not. But Mo Egger is kind of an old man's name, right? I would expect a man named Mo Egger to be long retired from some antiquated occupation like buggy manufacturing, carpetbagging, or phrenology. I should have put it all together long ago, but I don't live in the Cincy area and I've never heard him on the radio. But I mean, the man has a picture of himself on his blog and everything. I guess I always figured that was someone else, like a mascot or a stock photo found by searching "Reds fan" on Shutterstock.

Anyway, the Big League Stew asked the Egg Man to list the 10 best things about being a Reds fan. It's a strong list, written by a man who loves his Reds and knows a lot about them. The best reason is the Reds two best players, Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips. Also mentioned are the newly developed area around the park, Barry Larkin, and Pete Rose. Check out the whole list. It got me that much more excited about the upcoming season.

Fay ruminates on third base
Basically, everything depends on Scott Rolen remaining healthy. Of course, that's a relative term. A healthy Joey Votto is going to play 160 games. A healthy Scott Rolen will probably top out at 120-130 games. Fortunately, they do have some viable alternatives. Juan Francisco and Todd Frazier are the most likely back ups, and both are perfectly capable of playing quality baseball. Of course, everything here is ifs and buts.

Doug Gray looks at the list of prospects with invitations to Spring Training
and discusses their chances of breaking out with the big league club. It's all a good, informative overview, but here's the snippet about Andrew Brackman:

"The Reds brought Brackman in this offseason on a minor league deal. He has Major League quality stuff, and claims he has figured out his control problems that he struggled with in 2011 in the minors for the Yankees. If the Reds bullpen weren’t stacked, I would suggest that he has a chance to find a spot with a good showing. However, the Reds bullpen is pretty stacked and I think that unless an injury or two happens, he will find his way back to AAA."

Mark Sheldon has his omnibus Spring Training preview
It's got everything you need to know heading into Spring Training, so if you've been away all winter or if you just feel like brushing up, I recommend clicking on through.

The Roy Oswalt sitch just won't resolve
Resolve, damn you! Why won't you resolve! While Walt Jocketty reiterated that he thinks RoyO will end up with the Rangers, Jayson Stark says that ain't gonna happen. At this point, I really don't think he's going to end up in Cincy. But it remains unresolved.

I haven't listened to it yet myself
but Redleg Nation Radio talks to Devin Mesoraco about preparing for his first big league season.

Jay Bruce is featured in a commercial for the new MLB 2K12
with two other lefties, CJ Wilson and David Price. That's kinda neat, huh? All of them are left-handed! I think that's neat! Oh yeah, and some chick.

319 comments  | 

Fantasy_baseball_banner_456x30

Ranking the Reds, Fantasy Island Edition

From the looks of it, this was taken at a rest stop in South Central Ohio.

Keying off the Red Reporter Spring Training roster posted last week, I took a look at the likely members of the Opening Day 25 through the fantasy lens - which players have the highest potential value over a full season in conventional rotisserie stats and which might be worth putting on your "watch list" for possible savvy pick-up at some point after the draft. Some of these players beyond the Top 5 probably wouldn't merit much consideration during the draft, unless you're playing in a deep (>12 teams or so) or NL-only league.

There's nothing wrong with assembling a Reds-heavy roster, though you should be careful about letting sentimental ties get in the way of competitiveness. We all love Sam LeCure, but he's not going to bring you life-giving saves. And if he is, we're all in a heap of trouble.

Top 5

Joey Votto (Yahoo! Composite Ranking @ 1B: #3): Votto is routinely being ranked within the Top 5 overall by fantasy fundits. The only reservation about taking him in the mid-to-late first round is whether you're skeptical enough to think his power will dip again (RotoChamp, Bill James, fFans and PECOTA have him at 30-32 HRs) or that Cozart and Stubbs will struggle to get on base and create RBI opportunities in front of him.
Jay Bruce (OF #15): The Boss's average tumbled to .256 last year, but he did set career highs in HRs (32) and SBs (8). Entering his Age 25 season after posting an ISO only a few clicks away from Votto's last season, Bruce is a good bet to lead the team in home runs (projection systems give him the edge over Joey). His wildly fluctuating season-to-season BABIP could decide to settle higher than his career average, while his potential for a monster season as he approaches his prime could blow past his projections. That and his MMA-style offseason workouts give him the nod at #2 over BP. I've taken him too high the last two seasons (3rd or 4th round), but a stopped watch is eventually right, provided it's powered by unlimited potential and kinetic bat energy.
Brandon Phillips (2B #6): BP's average draft position at Mock Draft Central is 60, which puts him around the late 5th-early 6th rounds. He might be undervalued at that position, making him a potential top tier arbitrage if taken in the 4th or 5th rounds. You'd just have to hope that, after a fluky-looking season (with a BABIP 30 points over his career average) he's not going to be bitten too much by age or regression. I'm pretty confident his HRs and SBs can hover around 20 for a few more seasons, even if he can't sustain the batted ball success that got him to an even .300 average last year. He's increased his OBP in each of the last four seasons, so there's reason to think that better pitch selection could continue to help his average and power numbers. Mat Latos (SP #28): Fake Teams echoes the optimism we've had here in the face of post-PETCO questions: "The potential of GABP to affect his stats is overreported as people all too willingly overlook the positives (2 fastballs and a slider that rate above average, a high K-rate supported by his swinging strikeout numbers, a low walk rate, and his age, which is still only 24). He's slipping down draft boards, which means you could find yourself a nice little bargain in the 6th or 7th round." Johnny Cueto (SP #40): The peripherals put red flags all over Cueto's injury-plagued 2011, which is why the projections generally have him back around the mid-3.00s (PECOTA is especially pessimistic at 4.33). While there's plenty of reason to question the sustainability of last season's tiny ERA, both the projections and peripherals may ignore the extent to which Cueto has adjusted his approach to become a ground ball pitcher. As another Red hitting his prime years - and one who has improved every single year in the majors - continuing to pitch smarter and get better outcomes is just as reasonable an expectation as a +1.00 ERA regression.

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70 comments  | 

Hu's on First?: A Modernization



I thought I'd spruce up the old Abbott and Costello routine using modern players. Enjoy.

405694_178315385608995_100002916031264_290280_582254303_n_medium

(aside: I'm so old that my dad saw Abbott and Costello live.)

Abbott: Well Costello, I'm going to Cincinnati with you. You know Dusty Baker, the Reds Manager, gave me a job as coach for an exhibition game of MLB players.

Costello: Look Abbott, if you're the coach, you must know all the players.

Abbott: I certainly do.

Costello: Well you know I've never met the guys. So you'll have to tell me their names, and then I'll know who's playing on the team.

Abbott: Oh, I'll tell you their names, but you know it seems to me they give these ball players now-a-days very peculiar names.

Costello: You mean funny names?

Abbott: Strange names, pet names...like Dice-K.

Costello: His teammate Big Papi.

Abbott: Ah, Big Papi…

Costello: And his arch-nemesis.

Abbott: Arch-nemesis?

Costello: The Big Unit.

Abbott: The Big Unit... Well, let's see, we have on the bags…We got a Fielder at first, Hu’s on second, and third is Wright.

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65 comments  |  44 recs | 

Rewind Game 2: Reds vs. Cardinals (July 15, 2011)



This is the second of four Classic Rewinds on FSO. Apologies for the late post, I didn't have much time to ruminate on this one. Apparently I didn't have much time for the original game either, which was the first back from the break:

Welcome back, everyone. The Reds probably could have used some of those off days in May and June. Oh well. I had a very precise memory wipe performed yesterday, so I don't remember the first half anyway. Only two games below .500? It's a brand new season and I think it's very sporting of the team to spot the Cardinals 4 games.

It's a good one or else we wouldn't be here. Brace yourself for some wicked WPA swings.

Lineup and out-of-date pitcher stat lines after the junk.

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40 comments  | 

The Red Report: Ryan Madson

Yeah, that's Madson's "save" face.

Subtitle: "Ma-sty Boy the second - as ma-sty as he wants to be"

Ryan Madson

Relief Pitcher / Cincinnati Reds

6-6

200 (draft weight: 180)

feebly (L)

with strength and precision (R)

Age: 31 (b. Aug 28, 1980)

Born in: Long Beach, CA

Nicknames

Believe it or not, "Mad Dog" is his official bb-ref nickname. Other potentially creative nicknames include Ry-Dog, R-Mad, Ry-Ma, Mad Ryan, Mad Man, and Ryan California.

MLB Bio

Madson was drafted out of high school by the Phillies in the 9th round of the 1998 draft. Also drafted in that round were Jack Wilson and Morgan Ensberg. The Reds took "Henry" Dave Therneau, who never made it to the big leagues.
Madson almost exclusively started in the minors. By 2003, he was starting for the AAA Scranton team and looked ready to make the leap. Madson became a big league mainstay in 2004, though as a reliever and not as a starter. The Phillies already featured Eric Milton, Brett Myers, Vicente Padilla, Randy Wolf, Cory Lidle, and Kevin Millwood in their rotation. Madson appeared in 52 games (77 IP), posting a 9-3 record with a nearly 3 to 1 K:BB ratio, and an ERA of 2.34 (193 ERA+). He threw 87 innings in the following year but saw jumps in his hit and HR rates, and his ERA regressed to about league average. The Phillies gave The Mad Man a shot at the rotation in 2006, but it didn't stick. In 17 starts he posted an ERA above 6, less than 2 Ks per walk, and a scary HR ratio. "Mad Dog" lived up to his craaaa-zy nickname on July 25, 2006, when he threw four wild pitches in the third inning against the Diamondbacks. That tied the record for most wild pitches in an inning. The team moved him back to the 'pen for good in early August 2006 to make way for another young arm, Cole Hamels. Madson missed the stretch run and playoffs in 2007 but enjoyed a healthy and dominant year in 2008. He increased his velocity thanks to borrowing Jamie Moyer's strength routine (I'm picturing a raw egg for breakfast followed by tossing medicine balls and putting in a full day at the steel foundry) and was now able to ratchet up the ol' number one to as high as 97 m.p.h. He was a force in the playoffs, striking out 12 against one walk and one HR in 12 2/3 innings, as the Phillies marched to the top of the heap. With Brad Lidge ineffective and hurting for much of his post-championship Phillies career, the natural move was to anoint Madson as the team's new closer. But the team had reservations about Madson's closer mentality, and he didn't help matters with several blown saves in 2009 and 2010. Madson was a tepid 15 for 26 in save opportunities in those years despite excellent peripherals. He blew three saves in a five-day stretch in 2009, and he broke his toe while kicking a chair in frustration after a blown save in early 2010. Brad Lidge explains that Madson "was putting too much pressure on himself early in his career and when I was injured to be perfect out there. Now I think he realizes, 'Hey, I can trust myself.'" 2011 was a completely different story, as Madson got off to a blazing start and saved 32 games in 34 opportunities, while continuing to strike out about 4 batters per walk allowed. He also cut his HR rate in about half to an awfully impressive 0.3/9 IP (though we're talking about two versus four homeruns, which can easily be written off due to better weather or any number of other factors). Bottom line is that Madson has been a very good reliever during the past several years and a dominant one in the last two. According to ESPN, only eight relievers with at least 300 innings in the past five years have a lower ERA than Madson's 2.89 mark- and he's done that in a severe hitter's park. Over the past two seasons, Madson's posted a 2.45 ERA, a 126-15 strikeouts-unintentional walks ratio, and has allowed just 96 hits (and only 6 homeruns) in 113 2/3 innings. Madson's surprise signing with Cincinnati followed an intriguing winter which saw the Phillies reportedly back out of a four-year, $44M deal with their former closer. Enter Walt Jocketty and a shrewd one-year offer. Madson and agent Scott Boras are sure to test the market again next year, but hopefully the chip on Ryan's shoulder from failing to obtain an eight-figure deal will propel him to even greater heights in 2012.

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186 comments  |  1 recs | 

Self Promotion Monday - Vote for Us in CityBeat!

Don't let this headline appear in Cincinnati. Vote for us instead!

Top of the week to you cats and kittens! It has come to our attention that we have been nominated for Best Blog in CityBeat's Best of Cincinnati Awards! Frankly, we could appreciate any and all of you to use your e-mail accounts (and alternate ones) to ensure we have a competitive showing win.

How do you vote? Well, it's simple!

1. Click on this link to go to the Best of Cincinnati voting page.

2. Register

3. Click on the "Public Eye" Category on the right.

4. Select "Red Reporter" under best blog.

5. Vote for like 10 other random things so they won't think you're some horrid spambot (he hear Rohrer's serves a mean burger).

6. Voley! Voile!


We want to thank all of you for your fantastic contributions over the past year. Remember, since this blog wouldn't exist without all of you, you should take ownership of it, and, therefore, vote for it constantly. Your support has been nothing short of awesome.

Remember, folks: "Red Reporter - No Matter the Outcome, You'll Still Be Able to Complain About It Here."

91 comments  |  2 recs | 

Meet the New Red! - Willie Harris

Born: 6/22/1978

College: Kennesaw State, GA

Debut: 9/2/2001

HT/WT: 5'9"/195

Bats/Throws: L/R

At a Glance:

Drafted in the 24th round of the amateur draft in 1999, it seems the Orioles finally decided it was late enough to draft a guy who had too many coincidental ties to baseball not to end up with a decent career. Born in Cairo, GA, he also played at Cairo HS and lives there in the offseason, none of which has anything to do with his new organizational teammate, but is coincidence number one. He played college ball at Kennesaw State, and what with Kenesaw Mountain Landis being MLB's first ever commissioner is coincidence number two. And with a listed height and weight of 5'9", 195, he is an exact 1-to-1 physical replacement of the outfielder the Reds traded away this offseason in Dave Sappelt. Tell me that's just a coincidence...

Continue reading this post »

135 comments  | 

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