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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Let us not be fooled by the mainstream media in cartoons, print or on the airwaves.

Debt is sitting equally on all major western financial nations.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Is your bank listed here?

165 Banks On the Brink
By Philip van Doorn 02/16/12 – 06:00 AM EST

NEW YORK (TheStreet) — With year-end data for 99% of the nation’s savings and loan associations now available, there are 165 undercapitalized institutions on the TheStreet’s Bank Watch List, which is 12 more than last quarter. This is despite 13 banks being shuttered by regulators since the final third-quarter watch list was published in November.

It is important to note that any capital raised by institutions during the first quarter of 2012 will not be reflected on the Watch List.

Most banks and thrifts need to maintain Tier 1 leverage, Tier 1 risk-based and total risk-based capital ratios of at least 5%, 6% and 10% to be considered well-capitalized under regulatory guidelines. Some trust banks carry lower capital requirements. The ratios need to be at least 4%, 4% and 8% for most to be considered adequately capitalized.

Two banks on the fourth-quarter watch list was actually negatively capitalized as of Dec. 30. These included New City Bank of Chicago, with whose Tier 1 leverage ratio fell to -2.38%, after the bank posted a fourth-quarter net loss of $5.2 million, and Home Savings of America, with a Tier 1 leverage ratio of -2.25%, following a fourth-quarter net loss of $7.0 million.

The largest thrift joining the watch list is the privately held Liberty Bank, FSB, of West Des Moines, Iowa, which had $934 million in total assets as of Dec. 30. The institution has been significantly undercapitalized for a year now, after a fourth-quarter 2010 net loss of $109.2 million brought it’s Tier 1 leverage ratio below 3.00%. The Office of Thrift Supervision in July of 2011 ordered Liberty Bank, FSB to bring its Tier 1 leverage ratio up to 9.00% and its total risk-based capital ratio to 12.00%, by Sept. 30, 2011. These ratios were 2.30% and 4.76%, respectively, as of Dec. 30.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

We deal with all the problems of economics and politics. Now here is a fellow who really does not give a damn.

The question is if he is happier?

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

As long as our homes are worth buttkiss, unemployment will remain high and the demand for injected liquidity will only grow.

Foreclosures on the Rise Again
Published: Thursday, 16 Feb 2012 | 12:04 AM ET
By: Diana Olick
CNBC Real Estate Reporter

After a year-long reprieve from rising foreclosures, the numbers are going up again.

One in every 624 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in January, up 3 percent from the previous month, according to a new report from RealtyTrac.  Foreclosure activity froze in many states in 2011, due to processing delays after fraud, or so-called "Robo-signing," were uncovered in the fall of 2010.  The thaw is now on.

"We expect the pattern of increasing foreclosures to continue in the coming months, especially given the finalized mortgage and foreclosure settlement reached in early February between 49 state attorneys general and five of the nation’s largest lenders," said RealtyTrac’s CEO Brandon Moore in a written release.  "Foreclosure activity increased on a year-over-year basis for the first time in more than 12 months in Florida, Illinois, Indiana and Pennsylvania, following a pattern we saw in late 2011 in states such as California, Arizona and Massachusetts."

While states that do not require a judge to preside over foreclosure proceedings, like California, saw a jump in filings toward the end of last year, judicial states have all but stalled. That will now change, thanks to the $26 billion dollar government-lender/servicer settlement. There will still be some delays on individual state levels, but the wheels are turning again, and that means more bank repossessions and more foreclosed properties heading to the re-sale market.

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

O my god!

Derivative CDs Tempt Savers as Banks Reap Fees
By Matt Robinson – Feb 14, 2012 9:05 PM ET

A gray-haired woman picking a flower with a young girl adorns the cover of an HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) brochure that promises investors both “the growth of the market†and “the security of FDIC Insurance.â€

By tying interest rates to everything from the Dow Jones Industrial Average to precious metals, the pamphlet for HSBC’s Market-Linked Certificates of Deposits explains U.S. investors have the potential to earn “enhanced returns†over as long as seven years. A separate disclosure states that they also may earn zero, getting just their original principal back after the CD matures, while brokers may collect fees of 6 percent or more. Investors that need to get their money earlier must find a buyer for the CD, risking a loss.

As the Federal Reserve holds interest rates at about zero for a fourth year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), Citigroup Inc. and the rest of Wall Street are selling record numbers of the CDs to savers seeking the chance to earn eight times what fixed-rate deposits pay, while having principal backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Officials at the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, or Finra, said they’re examining whether buyers understand the risks of CDs that may lock up money in derivatives bets for as long as 20 years.

‘Hugely Profitable’

“They are hugely profitable for the issuers, much more profitable than typical CDs, and they are poorly understood by retail investors, who will not be able to figure out how much profit the issuers are making,†said Frank Partnoy, a University of San Diego law professor and formerMorgan Stanley (MS) derivatives trader. “The institutions that are selling them might as well be marketing CDs whose value depends on which team wins the Super Bowl.â€

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Jim’s Mailbox

Central Banks Trying To Keep Gold From Rising Violently
CIGA Eric

Listen to Jim’s interview.

The invisible hand has been working hard to keep a lid on gold and silver since April 2011. The hand is far more influential when it follows the direction of the cycles. For example, heavy paper selling works best during the D- and B-wave declines. The recent cycle transition from D-wave decline to A-wave advance means the invisible hand’s ability to control the trend are more likely to be described as pushing on a string than pulling on a rope. Increasing negative spreads on gold and silver leases as illustrated in chart 1 and 2 are but one outlet of paper control.

Chart 1: Real Gold Lease Rates (1-Month LIBOR less 1-Month GOFO) and Gold Price, USD
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Chart 2: Real Silver Lease Rates (1-Month LIBOR less 1-Month SOFO) and London PM Fixed Silver Price
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Smart traders/investors realize their paper push could setup the third hook in the D-wave’s 1-2-3 decline (see chart 3). This outcome would represent yet another big buying opportunities before the C-wave advance of 2012-14.

Chart 3: London PM Fixed Gold and GLD (ETF) Total Assets WA Stochastic
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Headline: *Breaking Interview* Central Banks Trying To Keep Gold From Rising Violently

My Dear Extended Family,

Click here to listen to the interview…

Tonight’s interview with Erik King of www.KingWorldNews.com is the summation of the last three special emails and the introduction of the ISDA to you.

I feel it is the most important offering that I have made in the past 9 years of our relationship. The future is not going to be easy, but with foreknowledge we can all survive and even prosper. This message is extremely important so if you have a moment please consider listening to the interview and then reviewing the last three emails.

Respectfully,
Jim

Source: jsmineset.com

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Dear Eric,

QE to infinity globally is the only tool able to create the infinite degree of liquidity required in an instant without any help from anybody anywhere except an electronic enter key.

Jim

Bernanke: Weak housing has hurt consumer spending
CIGA Eric

Bernanke suggests that the largely consumption-driven US economy needs rising home prices to support it. Cheap and easy credit, in turn, is needed to support rising home prices. While credit is cheap, table below suggests that it’s not easy. Real estate loans have become increasingly restrictive since the financial crisis in 2008. Real estate loans as a percentage of total bank credit has fallen from a high 42.1% in 2009.11 to 36.8% 2012.01. Even more disturbing, total loans at 73% total bank credit continue their steady decay. What are banks doing with their money? They’re buying Treasury and Agency (public sector) debt and hoarding cash in record percentages.

Table: Breakdown of Total Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks
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Headline: Bernanke: Weak housing has hurt consumer spending

WASHINGTON – Ben Bernanke says declines in home prices have forced many Americans to cut back sharply on spending and warns that the trend could continue to weigh on the economy for years.

The Federal Reserve chairman drew the connection between home values and consumer spending, which fuels 70 percent of economic activity, on Friday during a speech to the National Association of Home Builders in Orlando.

Bernanke says the broader economy won’t fully recover until the depressed housing market turns around. People are spending less because they are stuck in "underwater" homes, which are worth less than what is owed on the mortgage. And home values are falling because of foreclosures and tight credit — even in areas with lower unemployment.

"Recent declines in housing wealth may be reducing consumer spending between $200 billion and $375 billion per year. That reduction corresponds to lower living standards for many Americans," Bernanke said.

The Fed chairman said there’s no "silver bullet" to rescue the housing market. Renting out foreclosed homes and reducing or modifying mortgages are among steps that could help.

Source: foxnews.com

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Jim,

Slowly the light is coming on QE…

Best regards,
CIGA Christopher

Christopher,

This development will call into play the Federal Reserve as the lender of last resort via ever extended swap lines of dollars.

Haircuts on debt also requires that the haircut amount be made up in QE liquidity for the member banks holding that debt or they face balance sheet shrinkage and more.

Jim

European National Central Banks could face haircut losses on their Greek debt holdings

German Bundesbank and Luxembourg’s Central Bank own large amount of Greek bonds, while other central banks have hardly invested in Greek bonds, the German newspaper said, citing people in Brussels.

Governments hope that central banks would accept to voluntary participate in taking losses on the Greek debt holdings in order to avoid increasing the size of the second bailout package worth 130 billion euros, as the euro zone finance ministers projected that Greece needs between 145-150 billion euros, where Greek banks needs more than the previously projected 30 billion euros for recapitalization, the newspaper said.

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Dear Jim,

This might be of use to your readers. I’ve compiled all the gold price predictions for 2012, that I’ve found since late 2011, and posted it here:

http://realmoneytracker.com/blog/2012/02/2012-price-predictions-for-gold-and-silver/

Hope this message finds you in great health and spirit. And thank you so much for your two epic posts and the recent KWN interview. Thank you.

Best Regards,
CIGA Johnny

In The News Today

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Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Here is the latest from John Williams’ www.ShadowStats.com

- Retail Sales “Growth†Remains Statistically Insignificant and Reliant on Price Increases
- Slowing Annual Growth Evident in Both Sales and Production

"No. 418: January Retail Sales and Industrial Production "
http://www.shadowstats.com

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

You have known this for weeks now.

China pledges more help to solve Europe debt crisis
14/02 12:44 CET

China says it is ready to take a more active role in looking for a solution to the European debt crisis.

Prime Minister Wen Jiabao made the statement at the opening of an EU-China summit in Beijing.

Until now China has made no specific pledge of assistance.

European debt looks set to dominate the meeting, with China increasingly concerned about the potential knock-on effect on its own economy.

EU President Herman Van Rompuy asked for better access for European countries to the Chinese market.

“I’ve repeatedly stressed the need for a level playing field for European business, including better market access for European companies: the protection of investment and intellectual property and our concerns about protectionism. With premier Wen when we agreed on the need to promote more investments in both directions,†he said.

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German Version Of "The Terminal Beginning Of The Western Financial World"

Dear CIGAs,

Here is one of my recent eblasts translated into German. Courtesy of www.LarsSchall.com.

Der eigentliche Anfang vom Ende der westlichen Finanzwelt
Februar 12th, 2012

Jim Sinclair schreibt, dass QE ewig weitergehen wird, „weil es einfach kein anderes Werkzeug gibt, das die Menge an Liquidität bereitstellen kann, die durch die Zerstörung des Finanzsystems der westlichen Welt sofortig verlangt wird. Diese Zerstörung wurde uns via jenen gebracht, die alles verbrieft hatten.“ Zeitgleich hat für Gold eine zyklische Chance begonnen, bis 2015 preislich voll bewertet zu sein.

Von Jim Sinclair, Übersetzung Lars Schall

Die unten stehende Übersetzung ins Deutsche für LarsSchall.com erfolgt durch ausdrückliche und persönliche Genehmigung von Jim Sinclair.

Jim Sinclair ist der Vorsitzende und CEO von Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation (TRE: Altanext NYSE platform, TNX: Senior Toronto Stock Exchange). Er ist ein Edelmetall- und Rohstoff-Spezialist, der 1977 die Sinclair Group of Companies gegründete, die sämtliche Makler-Dienstleistungen anbot.

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Der eigentliche Anfang vom Ende der westlichen Finanzwelt, Teil 2
Februar 15th, 2012

Laut Jim Sinclair hat die Lebenskraft des internationalen Finanzsystems bis zu einem Grad nachgelassen, “der nur als episch bezeichnet werden kann.“ Seiner Ansicht nach wird das Finanzkartenhaus “den Zeitraum von 2012 bis 2015 nicht intakt überstehen.“ Zugleich wird der Dollar als Reservewährung in den nächsten drei Jahren von einem Rohstoff-basierten Geld abgelöst werden.

Von Jim Sinclair, Übersetzung Lars Schall

Die unten stehende Übersetzung ins Deutsche für LarsSchall.com erfolgt durch ausdrückliche und persönliche Genehmigung von Jim Sinclair. Als Ergänzung siehe den ersten Teil unter:

http://www.larsschall.com/2012/02/12/der-eigentliche-anfang-vom-ende-der-westlichen-finanzwelt/.

Jim Sinclair ist der Vorsitzende und CEO von Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation (TRE: Altanext NYSE platform, TNX: Senior Toronto Stock Exchange). Er ist ein Edelmetall- und Rohstoff-Spezialist, der 1977 die Sinclair Group of Companies gegründete, die sämtliche Makler-Dienstleistungen anbot.

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Jim’s Mailbox

Jim,

Cartel on the CDS market by banks?

No kidding…

Europe says it will be investigating. The result will come… after 2015.

Best regards,
CIGA Christopher

Christopher,

This will probably come out just after the truth of the JFK assassination and Area 51 are released.

Regards,
Jim

Entente entre banques sur le marché des CDS ? Bruxelles va mener l’enquête
Source : La Tribune.fr – 29/04/2011 | 14:47 – 457 mots

Seize banques d’investissement, parmi lesquelles BNP Paribas, Société Générale ou Crédit Agricole sont soupçonnées de s’être entendues ou d’avoir profité de leur position dominante.

La Commission européenne a annoncé vendredi l’ouverture de deux enquêtes de concurrence sur le marché des dérivés de crédit ( credit default swaps ou CDS ) afin de déterminer si 16 banques d’investissement et le service de données Markit s’étaient entendus ou avaient abusé de leur position dominante.

L’exécutif européen ajoute qu’il a ouvert une procédure contre neuf des 16 banques et contre ICE Clear Europe, une chambre de compensation des CDS , pour déterminer si des tarifs préférentiels accordés par la chambre aux banques avaient porté préjudice à la concurrence.

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Jim,

In an article provided by the French financial magazine La Tribune, Eugene Stiglitz, Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (2001), suggests that the Greeks have already defaulted on certain payments and accuse the ECB of not being transparent about these events.

Click here to read the article in French… (This article cannot be found in English)

He also suggests that the ECB may be protecting the bank’s sellers of CDS and mention a possible conspiracy between the banks, the ECB and, what he called the "secret committee", the ISDA.

He concludes that, by definition, CDS on sovereign debts become worthless and questions who will buy new CDS on Portugal, Spain, Belgium and Italy.

In my opinion, this mean a big loss of future revenue and source of profit for the main sellers of CDS (US banks) and, as there is no protection anymore, a complete stop of sovereign debt buying by the private sector (banks, hedge funds). I believe that is why today there is news that China won’t let Europe fail.

China to Get ‘More Involved’ in Europe Rescue, Hold Euros…

If you take out the private sector as potential buyer of PIGS sovereign bonds, what remains as the potential buyers are:

China,
ECB
IMF
FED

In my opinion, they won’t be able to hide QE3 to the public for much longer!

Best regards,
CIGA Christopher

*Breaking Interview* Central Banks Trying To Keep Gold From Rising Violently

My Dear Extended Family,

Click here to listen to the interview…

Tonight’s interview with Erik King of www.KingWorldNews.com is the summation of the last three special emails and the introduction of the ISDA to you.

I feel it is the most important offering that I have made in the past 9 years of our

Continue reading *Breaking Interview* Central Banks Trying To Keep Gold From Rising Violently

Mortgage Settlement Will Plunge Real Estate Values

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Dear CIGAs,

It is official.  State and federal governments have condoned forgery, perjury and fraud in what’s been called the “robo-signing†foreclosure debacle.  Last week, the five biggest banks in America signed on to a $26 billion deal that, basically, lets them off with a slap on the wrist for

Continue reading Mortgage Settlement Will Plunge Real Estate Values

In The News Today

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Rush hour in downtown Arusha, Tanzania.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Is an auction really an auction if it is kept secret from other potential buyers?

Fed’s Secret Sale Of AIG Assets To Goldman Criticized As ‘Un-American’ Bonnie Kavoussi

The Federal Reserve gave just five banks the chance to bid

Continue reading In The News Today

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