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February 16, 2012

Santorumentum Update, Nationwide and Buckeye State Editions

Filed under: Taxes & Government — TBlumer @ 4:59 pm

Nationwide, per Rasmussen:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters finds Santorum with 39% support to the former Massachusetts governor’s 27%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich follows from a distance with 15% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with 10%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

Perhaps more tellingly, Santorum now trounces Romney 55% to 34% in a one-on-one matchup among likely GOP primary voters.

Ohio Primary, per Rasmussen:

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum continues to ride his polling momentum into Ohio where he leads Mitt Romney by nearly two-to-one in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of Republicans in the state.

The new statewide telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary voters shows Santorum picking up 42% of the vote to Romney’s 24%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich draws 13% support, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul picks up 10%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

Santorum leads Romney by an even bigger margin – 58% to 30% – when the race is down to a one-on-one matchup in Ohio.

See what a coveted BizzyBlog endorsement does? (/kidding)

Thursday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (021612)

Filed under: Lucid Links — TBlumer @ 12:30 pm

Rules are here. Possible comment fodder may follow later. Other topics are also fair game.

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Unemployment Claims: 348K SA, 361K NSA; Year-to-Year Seasonal Factor Changes Caused Improvement From Last Week (Update: Impacts So Far This Year)

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — TBlumer @ 9:11 am

From the Department of Labor:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending February 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 348,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 361,000. The 4-week moving average was 365,250, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 367,000.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 361,928 in the week ending February 11, a decrease of 39,328 from the previous week. There were 424,400 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.

Last year’s seasonally adjusted figure for the comparable week was 420,000.

Seasonal factor adjustments accounted for the entire reported improvement:

Last year’s factor (confirmed by going to the interactive table here) was 1.010 (424,400 above divided by 420,000) This year’s is 1.040 (361,928 divided by 348,000). If last year’s factor had been applied to this year’s data, SA claims would have been 358,000 (361,928 divided by 1.010), the same as last week’s 358,000 figure before this week’s report upwardly revised it to 361,000.

As I’ve noted similarly in other circumstances, in the case of  both 2012 and 2011 we’re looking at work weeks in early February unaffected by holidays. The only reason the seasonal adjustment factors are so different is that the past almost four years of recession-driven and weak “recover”-driven data entering the seasonal adjustment machine have been so volatile and atypical.

Though I probably won’t do it because of time constraints, it almost seems worth it to run a shadow report on this year’s raw claims using last year’s seasonal factors to see if DOL is consistently using higher ones to reduce reported seasonally adjusted numbers, and to see what their longer-term impact is.

After filtering for seasonal factor chances, and though the doubts about how many people are still out there to get laid off persist — because, as explained last week, covered employment has barely moved off of its low last year, and is still down about 5% from where its 2007 peak — today’s result was decent, but not the spectacular improvement the press will probably portray.

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UPDATE: An interesting observation about how the nation’s good luck in avoiding serious winter weather has affected things –

The numbers, he says, indicate that fewer construction workers and others lost their jobs because the weather was good. In fact, he says, only 206,000 people were unable to work because of the weather last month, compared with an average of 425,000 the previous five Januarys, according to the BLS household survey.

“You have to look at these numbers with a grain of salt,†says Mr. Brown. “If this hiring continues in February, March, and April, that would be really something.â€

The luck we’re having this winter is being at least offset, possibly moreso, by the horrid, deadly winter in Eastern Europe (“European cold snap has claimed more than 650 lives”).

UPDATE 2: Well, here’s a partial look at the seasonal adjustment issue, namely a graphic of the raw factors for last year vs. this year thus far accompanied by an evaluation of their impact —

UnempClaimsSeasonalFactorDiffs2012and2011toWeek6

Only one difference inflated claims, and it was the one affected by the New Year’s holiday, which received relatively little attention because everyone understands that week’s volatility. Three weeks’ year-over year claims were significant (enough to deflated reported seasonally adjusted claims by 10,000 or more), and the other two had a negligible impact.

As they say, “developing …”

Positivity: Adult stem cell institute undertakes ambitious campaign for cures

Filed under: Life-Based News,Positivity — TBlumer @ 5:59 am

From Iowa City, Iowa:

Feb 15, 2012 / 03:56 am

With pro-life ethics and a patient-driven paradigm, the John Paul II Stem Cell Research Institute hopes to save lives and shape the future of medicine.

“Medical research is becoming too expensive and taking too long. It’s not transformative enough, or impacting patients at a fast enough rate,†institute founder and director Dr. Alan Moy told CNA on Feb. 10, explaining the motivation behind his ambitious “Collection For Cures†project.

“It’s more than just doing ethical research. We had to come up with a new paradigm,†Moy said of his institute’s focus on patients and their immediate needs.

Both the Knights of Columbus and the Catholic bishops of Iowa are backing the “Collection For Cures,†which aims to raise $10 million for research into rare diseases, regenerative medicine, and personalized cancer treatments.

After he founded the adult stem cell provider Cellular Engineering Technologies in 2005, Moy became aware of key research areas neglected by both the government and the marketplace. He saw the need for a nonprofit enterprise that could fill these scientific and technological gaps.

In 2006, Moy established the John Paul II Stem Cell Research Institute in Iowa City, as a grassroots effort of Catholic laity and others concerned with the future of ethical biotechnology.

“The goal of the institute is to identify and solve some of the major deficiencies in this country – one of which is the ethical issues surrounding embryonic stem cells,†he noted.

In addition to its pro-life ethical basis, Moy’s work stands out in the field for other reasons.

Another distinguishing mark is his interest in treating and curing “orphan diseases.†The term denotes thousands of serious but rare ailments that fail to attract research dollars, because of the relatively small number of sufferers.

Many of these rare diseases may be treatable with existing FDA-approved drugs. But drug companies have little commercial incentive to discover these applications, particularly when extensive regulatory burdens are factored in to the equation.

Moy, however, wants to use disease-specific, non-embryonic stem cell lines to test the effect of existing drugs and therapies on these unusual ailments. The method saves both money and time over research protocols that would involve testing on animals before moving on to human tissue.

This approach streamlines the research process, often using patients’ own cells to investigate possible cures and treatments. In 2010, the National Institutes of Health reported progress toward treatment of the fatal disease Niemann-Pick Type C, based on work with cells from the institute.

Along with its work on “orphan diseases,†the John Paul II Stem Cell Research Institute is also using adult cells to investigate new methods of cancer treatment, and ethical forms of the regenerative possibilities more often associated with stem cell research. …

Go here for the rest of the story.

February 15, 2012

Well-Kept Secret: New London, Conn. Mayor Has Apologized for Kelo Property Seizures

KeloHomeSmall2011Daryl Justin Finizio, the recently elected Democratic Party Mayor of New London, Connecticut has apologized to the families and homeowners who lost their homes as a result of the city’s decision to condemn properties in the Fort Trumbull area of that city. Those efforts began over a decade ago. A lawsuit by the victims which attempted to stop the city from taking their properties and destroying their homes ultimately led to the Supreme Court’s Kelo vs. New London decision in 2005. The Court ruled in favor of the City based on what it believed was “a carefully considered development plan.” A few remaining holdouts who tried to get the city to reverse course after the ruling, including Susette Kelo, lost their battle and settled with the city in 2006. To my knowledge, no ground has been broken on any kind of new development in the are originally occupied by the homes in the 5-1/2 years since.

Obviously, one could argue that the apology is way too late, given that the buildings have long since been leveled.

But considering that it relates to one of the most controversial Supreme Court decisions in the past few decades, how much opposition that decision has generated since it was handed down in 2005, and how so many other trivial apologies get so much more attention, it’s more than a little surprising that there has been virtually no coverage of it outside of the immediate local area, as seen in the results of the following Google News search on ["new london" kelo apology] (input exactly as indicated between brackets):

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AP’s Original Report on Obama at Master Lock Misstates His Related SOTU Statement

ObamaAtMasterLock021512Today, President Obama visited Master Lock, a company he cited in his State of the Union speech on January 24 using the following words: “But right now, it’s getting more expensive to do business in places like China. Meanwhile, America is more productive. A few weeks ago, the CEO of Master Lock told me that it now makes business sense for him to bring jobs back home. Today, for the first time in fifteen years, Master Lock’s unionized plant in Milwaukee is running at full capacity.”

Now note how Ken Thomas’s report at the Associated Press originally described (since revised) what Obama supposedly said:

Before going on an extended West Coast fundraising spree, the president was visiting Master Lock, a Milwaukee maker of padlocks that was cited in his State of the Union address for bringing back 100 jobs to the U.S. from China in response to higher labor and logistical costs in Asia.

(UPDATE: Thomas revised his text to exclude the specific 100-job SOTU reference shortly after this post was prepared, and moved the 100-job pickup to a separate paragraph. The original mistake was nonetheless made.)

What Thomas originally wrote is not what Obama said. If he had cited a situation involving only 100 jobs as proof that a wave of jobs is coming back during his State of the Union speech, even his fellow Democrats might have laughed him out of the Capitol Building.

100 employees isn’t even a really significant number to Master Lock’s parent company, let alone the U.S. economy, as shown in the company’s self-congratulatory press release on the night of Obama’s speech:
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Fact-Checking AP ‘Fact Checker’ Woodward: Bush Did Not ‘Keep the Cost of Wars Out of Budgets’

On Monday, Calvin Woodward, with help from Martin Crutsinger and Pete Yost, produced a “Fact Check” on the budget proposal the White House released earlier that day.

After properly criticizing the administration’s plan to use “about $850 billion in savings from ending the wars and steers some $230 billion of that to highways” (and actually quoting someone knowledgeable, who pointed out that “Drawing down spending on wars that were already set to wind down and that were deficit-financed in the first place should not be considered savings”), Woodward went off the rails:

President George W. Bush kept the cost of the wars out of his budgets, a contentious accounting maneuver that may have papered over the impact on spending projections but deepened the national debt as surely as if the price tag had been shown transparently. Taken together, the Bush and Obama budget tricks seem to suggest war costs nothing but ending it frees a ton of money.

Horse manure.

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Santelli on the Tea Party Movement: ‘Don’t Break Windows, Break Phony Arguments’

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — TBlumer @ 10:30 am

Brilliant (HT to Noel Sheppard at NewsBusters; short ad will appear first):

While the vandals are on the street corners, the Tea Party conservatives, they’re working state houses, the governorships, the mayorships, the Senate, the House. See, they understand, they’ve read the Constitution. If you want to make a difference, don’t go break windows, okay? Break some phony arguments that things like austerity are going to put you in the hole. What put you in the hole is borrowing 38 cents of every dollar you spent. That’s what put you in the hole, pure and simple. Everything else is political spin.

Bitter, Truth-Challenged Globe Sportswriter: Boston Goalie Thomas Endangering His Legacy

TimThomasBostonBruins2012It would appear that if Kevin Paul Dupont were king, he would be exploring how to send the Stanley Cup Finals exploits of Boston Bruins goalie Tim Thomas last year down the memory hole. Thomas “held the Canucks to eight goals in seven games” and became the first goalie ever to shut out his team’s opponent in a deciding Game 7 on the road, helping the Bruins win their first Cup in almost 40 years.

Since he can’t do that, the Boston Globe sportswriter appears to want to use Thomas’s absence from the team’s White House visit three weeks ago and subsequent Facebook postings as evidence that Thomas’s “legacy” is in danger (his article’s headline states that Thomas needs to “restore” it). In making his supposed case, the self-professed “confused” Dupont made and repeated a fundamental factual error. Those errors destroy any credibility he may have had in portraying Thomas’s decision and subsequent Facebook postings as somehow disrupting team unity:

Thomas skipped a White House visit, which was a mandatory team event.

… Skipping the mandatory team event could have prompted Chiarelli to fine or suspend him.

That’s strange, since New England Sports Network’s Ricky Doyle quoted a top Bruins executive as follows on the day of Thomas’s White House absence:
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Latest PJ Media Column (‘Obama’s Farcical Budget Betrays a Crisis-Driven Electoral Strategy’) Is Up

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — TBlumer @ 7:47 am

It’s here.

It will go up here at BizzyBlog on Friday (link won’t work until then) after the blackout expires.

The column’s core point, demonstrated by reference to the numbers: The Obama administration would like to see the government hit the $16.394 trillion debt ceiling before Election Day so it can create another orchestrated “crisis” it believes it will work to its advantage.

The numbers indicate that the government appears to be on track to do just that.

Wednesday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (021512)

Filed under: Lucid Links — TBlumer @ 7:35 am

Rules are here. Possible comment fodder may follow later. Other topics are also fair game.

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Positivity: Survival of pilot after plane crash called miracle

Filed under: Positivity — TBlumer @ 7:30 am

From Northern Mississippi:

8:18 PM, Feb. 14, 2012

Single-engine aircraft runs out of fuel in north Miss

Injured and disoriented, a pilot was trapped upside down in his crashed airplane for several hours Tuesday but was able to make calls on his cellphone while rescuers searched the north Mississippi woods where he went down, authorities said after finding the man alive.

Monroe County Sheriff Cecil Cantrell said the pilot, who has not been identified, was taken to a hospital for treatment after crashing his single-engine Piper Cherokee Six when the plane ran out of fuel and went down near the border of Itawamba and Monroe counties. The pilot’s condition was not immediately available. He was the only person aboard.

“We got him out. He was living. He was shook up and cut up real bad, but he was coherent. What he’s been through, it was a miracle,” Cantrell said. “We don’t know his name. We tried to talk to him, but he couldn’t really say much.” The sheriff said the man appeared to be between 40 and 50 years old.

Federal Aviation Administration spokeswoman Kathleen Bergen said the plane was about 18 miles southeast of Tupelo when the pilot reported a problem Tuesday morning. Bergen said an alert was sent to airports and authorities within a 50-mile radius of the plane’s last known location at about 7:45 a.m.

Bergen said she couldn’t say what kind of problem the pilot reported, but local authorities said he told air traffic controllers he was running out of gas while flying from Ocala, Fla., to Olive Branch. The plane is registered to Buccaneer Aviation Inc., a Delaware corporation, but the company appears to operate in Florida.

The pilot tried to give air traffic controllers his location before going down, the sheriff said. Residents in the area reported seeing a plane that appeared to be going down into the woods. Firefighters, law enforcement officers and others from Itawamba, Lee and Monroe counties joined in the search.

Cantrell said the pilot called someone on his cellphone and authorities used “pings” from cellular towers in the area to help narrow their search. Two Army National Guard UH-72 Lakota helicopters joined the search.

One of the helicopters spotted the wreckage about 12:40 p.m., said Guard spokesman Timothy Powell. …

Go here for the rest of the story.

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