Fantasy Baseball Advice

Yes, that’s a fantastic neck curtain I’m rockin’. Besides the point. Don’t stare. What this IS is (who you callin’ stutterer?) an attempt to translate some nerd speak into some useful fantasy baseball draft strategy.

More statistically-inclined minds than my own (mainly a guy with the handle “matthan” at DRaysBay) have figured out a pretty reliable way to calculate expected Ks from pitchers. “Tell us something we don’t know, Dick Anderson.” Okay, how about the coefficient of determination for this particular model is over 90%? *crickets* Considering most number crunchers take 70% and like it, 90% is like jumping-a-dead-battery-with-aspirin-and-chocolate useful. Oh, and it’s reliable like that down to 30 IP. That’s door-breaching-charge-out-of-steel-wool-and-a-fountain-pen exciting!

Here’s the formula: eK%=(ClStr%*.9)+(Foul%*.5)+(InPly%*-.9)+(InZSwStr%*1.1)+(OZSwStr%*1.5)

So why aren’t we reading about this magical formula all over the place? Well, it’s a trip to the dentist to compile the holey data and it uses wisps of cotton-candy-fuzzy math. Regardless, it’s fairly reliable if you floss through it and definitely useful despite the caveats. Having said that, I now say it’s crazy talk to produce something this potentially powerful, then shelve it. That’s like developing an armor-piercing laser, but scrapping it because it’s a smidgen inaccurate and only works a good chunk of the time. There’s still potential for making some big holes in stuff here!

I admit, I do possess some nerd genes and I’ve read through the boring stuff. That doesn’t mean YOU (yeah, you too, I suppose) should have to though, loyal Razzball readers. So what do we do with it then? For one, we can look at actual Ks from pitchers in 2011 vs. their expected Ks based on this formula. That ought to help tell us, in part, who was sandbaggin’ and who was overachievin’. I’ve arranged the numbers so positive is positive and negative is negative (fancy that). I’ve cherry picked players I wanted to highlight and to avoid some of the stat goofs. If you want to check out any others, you can sift through all the source data like I did. I’ve shown my work on a separate sheet, just like in math class.

This part is obligatory, really boring stuff. If you just want to get to the the T & A, skip this section. Just don’t ask questions that are answered here, because then you’ll be “that guy”.

A few players showed up one one set of source data and not the other, or repeated exactly within the same source data, so I’ve eliminated those.
Lists only include players who had 30+ IP for one specific team, not over several teams combined.
A few SP show up on the list multiple times due to having 30+ IP for multiple teams.
Data is split between SP and RP, so players should only be credited with stats for one role or the other per each list, respectively.
Some of the data is skewed by differences in pitch counts, spot starts by RP, relief appearances by SP, trades, and/or other statistical errors between sources.
References:
FanGraphs
Stat Corner
DRaysBay

If you’d like to peruse the data for your favorite players, check out the full document here and comment below with questions. Thanks for reading!

SP Sandbaggers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Randall Delgado – 18.0 / 12.2 / 5.8
He represents the biggest difference, postive or negative. Control remained an issue and he was pretty lucky with a .220 BABIP and 86.5 LOB%. However, if he can manage to tack down more first pitch strikes and harness some BBs, he could rein in even more upside. He and everybody else… If he ends up in the majors over Minor/Teheran, I certainly wouldn’t expect a Beachy-like season. I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Minor’s-minors-like season either.

Guillermo Moscoso – 17.9 / 13.9 / 4.0
He should have had enough Ks to place him slightly below the league average 7.13 K/9. However, he was fortunate hitters made enough bad contact (79.1 O-Contact%) to get themselves out when his control lapsed. There’s enough downside to spoil any upside, and the move to Coors won’t help. In the interest of manipulating time and space, let’s just pretend most of these schmohawks are invisible. Collmenter to Vargas: “Hey, can you believe that sh…”

Phil Hughes – 17.8 / 14.2 / 3.6
If you’re reading this (skimming counts), chances are you’ve been burned by Hughes at some point in your fantasy career. He dealt with injury and “hittability” last year, but showed flickers of that sweet, sweet flame. Sure there’s reason for concern, but he’s only 25 and here’s one more reason for optimism. There’s reasoning for ya. If he’s traded or somehow ends up Yanked back into the rotation despite the acquisitions of Pineda and Kuroda, keep the fire burning.

Shaun Marcum – 21.9 / 19.2 / 2.7
2.7% doesn’t sound like a whole lot, does it? However, at 200 IP and 823 batters faced, “U” should’ve been looking at about +20 K and +1 K/9. Yeah, Grey probably had good reason to like him so much. There isn’t much NOT to like about his numbers, so Marcum down for improvement.

Doug Fister – 17.4 / 14.8 / 2.6 (SEA), 20.8 / 20.9 / -0.1 (DET)
And here you thought Fister was fun to mention before? It looks like he had potential to get more guys to swing & miss, it just took the move to Detroit for him to capitalize more, and then some more on top of that. He’s likely to regress a little and his 17.2% slider usage might land him at the bottom fringe of Rudy’s Top 20 Risky Pitchers For 2012 list, but some of his stuff is legit. Welcome, fister+bottom+stuff Googlers!

Edinson Volquez – 23.8 / 21.3 / 2.5
Yes, he strikes dudes out. Yes, he walks them too. Yes, his consistent velocity and plate discipline, absurd 20.7 HR/FB%, and 1st inning ineptitude tell me some of his struggles were fluky. Yes, he will get less run support in SD. Yes, PETCO should help. Yes, he could pull a post-Dusty Harang-ment. Yes, I’m telling you to keep at least a lazy eye on him.

Jake Peavy – 21.6 / 19.3 / 2.3
Though some of his metrics looked like imperials and vice versa, there appears to be a millibigass (that’s a thousandth of a bigass) light at the end of the tunnel. But… and that’s a badonkadonkeykong-sized but… he needs to stay healthy long enough to get his conversion tables sorted out. Sometimes you don’t need standardized OR fanciful measurements to tell you what you should already know.

Jeremy Hellickson – 17.3 / 15.1 / 2.2
Bad news is, his K/9 was only 5.57. Good news is, it should have been about 6.4. “Wait, that’s good news?” Bad news is, his ERA/WHIP were artificially low. Good news is, the extra Ks should balance those out somewhat. “Some what?” Bad news is, he fits the risky pitcher bill. Bad news is, he’ll cost too much come draft time, regardless. “But…”. Yeah, I know good news was supposed to come next.

Danny Duffy – 20.6 / 18.4 / 2.2
On the other hand, I’m hoping this dude eventually ends up back in the rotation since he’s poised for a rebound. He’d been blowing everyone away up until his MLB debut (say that five times fast), and I don’t envision Duffman totally switching from blow to suck. Duff just didn’t trust his stuff. Know who else has had issues with nerves? His name rhymes with slinky… “Ohhh, yeahhh!”

Dan Haren – 22.0 / 20.1 / 1.9
Hairy Dan’s ratios got a little trim from a lower than normal HR/FB rate and BABIP, but his Ks should have been a little fuller. Ironically, his increased cutter use (+20.5% vs. 2010!) seems to be working, as his O-Swing% and O-Contact% go up as his Zone% goes down. All in all, y’all, he ought to retain comparable value. Did I get that “y’all” right, y’all?

Scott Baker – 24.2 / 22.3 / 1.9
Similarly, Baker’s Ks should’ve continued to rise while his ratios collapsed to an extent. Yep, even past his career high 8.22 K/9. It’s hard to put a finger on what exactly his secret ingredient was, but the measurements support it. He’s someone I would not sleep on in 2012, lest you get burned… or accused of assault. Don’t stand so close to me, space invader.

John Danks – 20.2 / 18.5 / 1.7
Danks refined his cutter to a lesser extent than Haren, but he also got more aggressive at pounding the zone and was actually a bit unlucky. There’s every reason to expect him to see both a bump in Ks AND a reduction in his ratios. It could have been more than a little if he’d been dealt, but Danks don’t stank.

There we have it, a Scott Baker dozen. There are about three times as many SP Sandbaggers than Overachievers (nope, no idea why and not too worried about it), so it’s time to move on before we get too bogged down in this shizzpile.

SP Overachievers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Clayton Kershaw – 24.7 / 27.2 / -2.7
Here I figured the opposite of Marcum was Mucram… CK won the CY, and deservedly so, but would he have won it with 23 less Ks and .9 less K/9? Probably. Just consider this gap, a smidgen of good fortune and his 25.5% slider use before you start wearing his cologne and get all reachy, reachy for him.

Zack Greinke – 26.1 / 28.1 / -2.0
Knocking his K/9 down to 9.8 from 10.5 isn’t a big deal in the context of a 7.96 career rate. He’s suffered bad luck from various sources the last two seasons, so there’s a chance his ratios rebound some too. However, his F-Strike% and Zone% dropped 2% and 7.5% during that time and a move to the NL. His stuff has bumped his O-Swing 5.1% to compensate, but reading between the percent signs, it might be more than nerves. My gut tells me not to invest too heavily for 2012. If you hear my gut too, hand me the Cracker Jack, will ya?

Ubaldo Jimenez -  – 20.3 / 22.2 / -1.9 (COL), 19.8 / 21.4 / -1.6 (CLE)
He was a bit less than fortunate both in COL and CLE, so his ratios should trend up. However, his velocity went down along with his GB%, F-Strike% and SwStr%. In short, I’m not expecting massive regrowth. Count on Big Jim too much and you could very well end up spending 2012 pulling out your hair, wondering “Why, Ubaldo?!”

Cliff Lee – 24.5 / 25.9 / -1.4
It’s like a freakin’ barbershop with all these cutters cropping up… er… down. The Adverb still would have bested his previous career high K/9 rate with about 10 less Ks and he’s capable of producing similar, though probab-Lee slight-Lee less spectacular numbers again. Of course, investing too much into last years numbers could easi-Lee end like another crusade for eternal youth; poor-Lee.

Next time, I’ll go over the relievers that should see an increase or decrease in Ks.  Until then, I will comb my mullet.

For these pairings, I’m going to be using our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  Notably, the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, top 40 starters for 2012, top 60 starters for 2012 and the top 80 starters for 2012.  Okay, now that we have our links and shizz done.  What is a pitcher pairing?  It’s how you plan on putting together a fantasy staff.  It’s a plan of action.  If you have A pitcher, which B, C and D pitcher goes with him?  You should have six starters.  The sixth starter is Brad Peacock or take whoever you want.  I suggest an upside pick.  Brad Peacock comes to mind.  Or Mike Minor.  Mike Minor also comes to mind.  I’m going to assume you’re in a 12 team, 5×5 and some variation of 9 Pitchers league.  (NOTE:  What you are about to read is massively confusing.  If it were found scribbled in a notebook, the FBI would be watching me.)  Anyway, here’s some pairings for pitching staffs for 2012 fantasy baseball drafts:

TIERS

If your first pitcher is from the tiers:  “The top tier.  Didn’t I already say that?†and “The aces that once were.†— These tiers are from Halladay to Greinke.  There’s very little chance I have anyone in any of these tiers.  If I do have one, I wouldn’t take another pitcher until the Gio tier that goes into the top 40 starters.  Then I’d grab one guy from the tier of Moore/Scherzer and one guy from the flyer tier of Sanchez.  Finally, I’d finish my staff off with — that just sounded like a phone sex operator — an out there flyer from the top 80 starter post (a pitcher in the top 80 post that I like, preferably), then I’d grab Peacock or Minor.  So Greinke, Daniel Hudson, Beachy, Minor, Peavy and Peacock.  That staff will probably have 13′s in every pitching category in a 12 team league.

If your first pitcher is from the tier:  “If I don’t have one starter already, here’s where I’m drafting and I’m fine with that.” – This tier goes from Hamels to Lester.  I’d pair any of the top 20 starters that come between Hamels and Lester with anyone in the Wim Wenders tier, but it’s not mandatory.  In other words, if I have Hamels, I wouldn’t ignore Wim Wenders’s tier if they fell to me, but I wouldn’t reach either.  You’ll be fine taking Hamels and moving right into the Gio tier.  But let’s say you start your staff with Hamels and Haren because he falls to you, you should skip right to the Moore tier.  Again, if someone from Wim Wenders’s tier drops, then you can grab him, but you’re loading up too much on pitching at this point.  So if you have Hamels, Haren, Moore, you jump to Sanchez’s tier and grab two pitchers.  (Yes, this is like a Choose Your Own Adventure.)  So that leaves you with Hamels, Haren, Ubaldo, Worley, McCarthy and Brad Peacock.  That’s one great looking staff, or so says Gosh Johnson, Josh’s porn star brother.

Now if you grab Hamels, but you skip Wim Wenders’s tier and go straight to Gio’s tier, then you grab one or two guys in that tier and one or two guys from the Yummo! tier.  If you grab one from the “Crazy like a fox” tier, then grab two from the Yummo! tier and vice versa.  At this point, you should have four starters.  Then grab anyone after Sanchez then Brad Peacock.  That leaves you with a staff of Hamels, Latos, Anibal, Garza, Wandy and Peacock.  That’s probably the best staff I’ve ever seen in the entire universe.

If your first pitcher is from the tier:  “Wim Wenders’s favorite tier.” — This is similar to grabbing Hamels through Lester.  Wim Wenders’s pitchers are all number one fantasy starters.  I’d go ahead and grab three starters between the “crazy like a fox” and Yummo! tiers and another one later on while saving room for Peacock.  So you’d have Weaver, Latos, Moore, Marcum, Peavy and Peacock.  You just won your league and games haven’t even started.  You’re welcome.

If your first pitcher is from the tier:  “Am I crazy with these rankings?  Yeah, crazy like a fox!†— You’re fighting an uphill battle if you haven’t grabbed a starter until this tier.  So you need to make up for that by grabbing two guys in this tier and two guys in the Moore tier then a flyer then Peacock.  For instance, Gio, Daniel Hudson, Ubaldo, Luebke, Lilly and Peacock.  Honestly, that staff looks pretty good to me; go buy yourself an ice cream cone and celebrate.

TROUBLE AREAS

WHIP Issues – For every pitcher who is projected over a 1.25 WHIP, take one below.  The quicker you do this, the better off you’ll be.  For instance, if you take Gio Gonzalez, who I have projected for a 1.28, you need to pair him with someone I have projected below a 1.25.  Don’t pair Gio with Scherzer.  Don’t pair Gio with Morrow.  Pair Gio with Zimmermann.  Pair him with Daniel Hudson.  Pair him with Cain.  Remember, the further you get into the rankings, the harder it becomes to find lower WHIPs.  In the top 60 starters, there’s only six starters below a 1.25 WHIP.  There’s 11 pitchers in the top 80 (which is actually 29 pitchers), four of them are Johan, Baker, Peavy and Stauffer.  Three of those are injury risks and the other one you can’t start in away games.  Then there’s Kuroda, who is a Yankee risk, Lilly, who’s old, Collmenter, who only gives you a good WHIP, and Chris Sale and Daniel Bard, who could be good but are risks in their own right.  Basically, there’s McCarthy to totally trust for WHIP help in the last 29 pitchers.  Sidenote:  WHIP can be helped by closers and MRs… Or hurt by them.

K ISSUES – For drafters who follow my lead, this shouldn’t be as much of an issue.  You’re shooting for around 150/starter.

Overall Pitching Issues – Just about everyone, including yours truly, drops at least one of their starters by May 1st.  Obviously, you want the best team coming out the draft, but it’s a marathon not a sprint.  Starters always come out of nowhere on waivers to become productive.  Always.  Even in deep leagues.

Minnesota Twins 2011 Minor League Review

Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America:

2012 (19) | 2011 (13) | 2010 (6) | 2009 (22) | 2008 (15) | 2007 (8) | 2006 (6)

2011 Affiliate Records

MLB: [63-99] AL Central

AAA: [53-91] International League – Rochester

AA: [72-70] Eastern League – New Britain

A+: [63-76] Florida State League – Fort Meyers

A: [69-69] Midwest League – Beloit

R: [42-26] Appalachian League – Elizabethton

The Run Down

Much of the Twins best talent is years away from its arrival in the big leagues.  The club’s top prospect, Miguel Sano, is not yet 19.  He headlines a handful of talented prospects beneath the Double-A level, including Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia.  With their first round pick in the June Draft, the Twins added Levi Michael out of UNC.  They hope the shortstop will add some polish to their system’s hitting prospects and climb the ladder quickly, though he’s yet to step foot on a ball field as a pro.

While the bulk of its talent remains distant, the system isn’t void of big league-ready prospects.  Joe Benson will try to earn a spot in the Twins outfield this spring.  Given Justin Morneau’s injury woes (see Aaron Gleeman’s Twins Preview), Chris Parmelee could see the field often.  Right-handed starter, Liam Hendriks, is on the verge, too. Beyond that, there isn’t much here to draw excitement.  Not for a few years, at least.

Arizona Fall League Players – Mesa Solar Sox

Cole DeVries (RHP); Scott Diamond (LHP); Brett Jacobson (RHP); Bruce Pugh (RHP); Chris Herrmann (C); Brian Dozier (SS/2B); Aaron Hicks (OF)

Graduated Prospects

Ben Revere (OF); Luke Hughes (3B); Trevor Plouffe (SS); Tsuyoshi Nishioka (2B); Rene Tosoni (LF)

Players of Interest

Hitters

Joe Benson | OF:

Benson will compete for a spot in the Minnesota outfield at Twins camp this spring, but he’s skipped Triple-A to this point, and it seems more likely that he’ll end up with Rochester for opening day.  With great power potential, he could be a 25 HR guy if he can keep improving on plate discipline, although he’ll probably struggle in AVG and OBP throughout his career.  Even so, Benson should bring quite a bit more fantasy value than Ben Revere, so keep an eye on that battle during the coming weeks.

Chris Parmelee | 1B/OF:

Parmelee’s first stint with the big club was impressive:  .355/.443/.592 including 10 XBH (4 homers) in 88 trips to the plate.  Granted, that’s a tiny sample, but it’s reflective of his ability to swing with confidence versus major league pitching.  He’ll need to improve his approach against lefties, but with Justin Morneau’s injured brain tissue and all, Parmelee is in good position to collect significant AB’s in 2012.

Pitchers

Liam Hendriks | RHP – SP:

Hendricks was forgettable in four starts with Minnesota last year, but the Aussie maintains a great competitive demeanor and he shouldn’t be deterred.  He’s a command-first righty and he needs to keep his pitches down in order to be effective.  When he’s on, though, he works quickly and induces weak contact.  Hendricks is probably ready for a backend role in the Twins’ rotation, but he’ll begin 2012 in Triple-A.

Honorable Mention

Hitters

Brian Dozier | SS/2B:

Dozier broke out in 2011, slashing .320/.399/.491 between High-A and Double-A.  The 24-year-old has never been highly touted, but it’s hard to ignore his numbers.  With Jamey Carroll signed through 2013, don’t expect to see Dozier in a full time role ‘til 2014.  He could certainly be used in a utility role at some point this year, though.

Aaron Hicks | OF:

Hicks is an extremely toolsy prospect, but his numbers hardly reflect his potential.  After posting a worrisome .722 OPS in a full season at High-A, the Twins are hoping he’s ready for Double-A in 2012.  With his level of talent, Hicks should move quickly once he’s figured it out.

Oswaldo Arcia | OF:

Arcia, like Hicks, is yet to reach Double-A.  He hit 23 homers across three levels in 2011, and that figure should only grow in the coming years.  9 BB as opposed to 53 K’s at High-A is concerning.  The Twins would like to see him draw more walks in 2012 in order to justify his spot on the 40-man.

Chris Herrmann | C/OF:

Herrmann is positioned to step in as Joe Mauer’s backup in 2013, which is to say:  Herrmann stands to see plenty of AB’s in 2013.  He’s at least a year away, and his numbers have never been spectacular, but he’s worth noting for his potential to land a near-regular role next season.  Keep an eye on him as he pushes through to Triple-A in 2012.

Pitchers

Kyle Gibson | RHP – SP:

Gibson was Minnesota’s #1 prospect just a year ago, but his stock has dropped significantly after the righty underwent Tommy John surgery last July.  With excellent secondary pitches to go along with a low-90s fastball with movement, Gibson profiles nicely as a #2 or #3 starter.  Unfortunately, it’s not likely that we’ll see him in the Majors until 2013.

Grey:  What is Ryan Braun worth in 2012?

Rudy:  Not sure.  I’d like to know what is Jayson Werth’s brawn in 2012?!

Silence.

Silence.

Rudy:  Oh, right, this is the time of year where you need me to be mathy vs. contribute sarcastic titles and player notes.

Grey:  Yup.

Rudy:  Okay, I’ll write it up a post.

————-

Assuming Ryan Braun and his bubbe can’t argue away his 50-game suspension, determining his proper draft position is conceptually hard (in reality, it is easy as ESPN/Yahoo!/CBSSports.com drafters will have an ADP as a starting point).  While crowdsourced data like ADP can be quite good, this is such a unique instance that it might be a greater opportunity or bigger sucker bet than the usual draft pick.

Here is the basic formula I’d use to determine Ryan Braun’s value for 2012 in a 12-team mixed league with 5 OF / 1 UTIL / 3 bench spots / 1250 IP cap / daily roster changes:

Braun’s Projected Stats (over roughly 70% of a season) + Replacement OF Stats for (over roughly 30% of a season) – Opportunity Cost of Giving Up a 3rd Bench spot For 50 Games.

Let’s start with the easy part – prorating Braun’s stats to a 112 game season.  ZiPs estimates Braun’s full season would have been .296/97/30/107/22 over 608 ABs.  I multiplied each of these numbers by 112/162 and got:  420 AB/67/21/74/15.

Here are the OFs that ranked from 57th to 63rd in the end of year Player Rater (will be up later this week):  Dexter Fowler, Bobby Abreu, Jason Bay, Will Venable, Juan Rivera, Delmon Young, Nyjer Morgan.  Average this motley crew’s stats together and you get:  .264/60/8/51/14 over 442 ABs.  Multiply that by 50/162 and you get:   136 AB/19/3/16/4.

Combine these projections together (weighting the Batting Average based on AB) and you get:  .288/556 ABs/86/24/90/19.  I plugged that stat line into last year’s rankings and then weighted hitters and pitchers to reflect typical drafting behavior (i.e., a $180 hitter/$80 pitcher mix).  Net result:  Composi-Braun’s stats would’ve ranked as the 47th best player at $22 (e.g., Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce).

That leaves us with the most abstract of the three calculations – what is the value of giving up your 3rd bench spot for roughly 30% of a season?  This value is going to vary based on your drafting ability, luck, and whether you choose a hitter vs. pitcher.  But we can still break it into three components:

For #1, the greatest value comes from relievers who can be slotted in during your starting pitcher’s off days.  Let’s assume you pick a solid middle reliever with a full year line of 60 IP / 3 wins / 3 saves / 50 K / 3.00 ERA / 1.10 WHIP and you can use him 80% of the time.  That would net out to:    14 IP / 0.7 W / 0.7 SV / 12 Ks.  Throw in a little credit for ERA/WHIP, and you’re maybe at about 0.8 of a standings point.  That doesn’t sound like a lot but 0.8 standings points is worth $2 based on my Point Share calculations (for the 12 team MLB format).

If you went with a hitter, you’re looking at a similar yearly line that we used for the replacement OF (.264/60/8/51/14) multiplied by 0.3 (for 50 out of 162 games) and then by 0.2 (about 1.5 games out of 7 where you have an opening to play them).  This nets out to a measly 4/0.5/3/1 line which totals out to 0.5 standing points or roughly $1.

So for #1, we’ve got an estimate of $1-$2.

For #2, I’m just going to assume $0 since the chances that your 3rd bench spot has any trade value is low.

For #3, I’ve found most of a team’s later round and bench picks usually end up on the waiver wire in a shallow league format like 12-team MLB.  There were 37 players who I valued at $10+ for end of year that Grey ranked at the equivalent of $3 or less (out of top 200).  Only 8 of those players were drafted in the majority of Razzball Commenter Leagues:  Asdrubal Cabrera (ADP 222), Michael Bourn (108), Starlin Castro (153), Jhonny Peralta (~250), Kyle Farnsworth (~250), Ryan Madson (~250), Coco Crisp (238), and Brandon League (235).  So throwing out Bourn and Castro, there were 6 players of notable value that could have been bench filler.  Since we’d be losing 33% of our bench spots, let’s assume we’d lose only 33% of these potential lottery tickets.  That nets out to 2 players in a 12 team league that might’ve been lost because of an occupied bench spot.  The average value of those 6 players was $14.   So missing out on a 16% chance to get a $14 player is worth $2.20.  (Note:  There are a whole bunch of variables/scenarios I left out for post brevity including 1) an owner might’ve still dropped the ‘lottery ticket’ in favor of another waiver pick, 2) the ‘lottery ticket’ wouldn’t be starting from day 1 so they wouldn’t earn their $10+ value, 3) there’s potential to have stashed someone worth $1-$9, 4) the replacement OF for Braun is the ‘lottery ticket’, etc.  Let’s pretend all these variables average out.)

If I figure that #1 and #3 have some overlap – the ‘lottery ticket’ would’ve either represented some of the part-time at-bats/IP or replaced a starter who became my off-the-bench plater, I’m going to say the opportunity cost of a bench spot is in the range of $3-$4.

Fleaflicker has him at 83 and Grey has him at 119.  It’ll be interesting to see where it ends up in the various leagues (including Razzball Commenter Leagues).So $22 minus $3.50 = $18.50 which is about the 60th most valuable player from last year (Carlos Beltran, Adam Jones).  So end of 5th round/early 6th round SHOULD be Ryan Braun’s ADP.  Right now, ESPN has him at 39, Yahoo has him at 48,

Okay, so it’s not the best 2012 fantasy baseball team, but, man, that title sings, right?  This is the best 2012 fantasy baseball team that I can put together when drafting from my top 100 for 2012 fantasy baseball and top 300 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  Honestly, I could draft another 25 teams from those lists, and they’d all be different.  If I took Longoria in the 1st round, everything after it would change.  For this exercise, I’m taking Swiggy first, because, well, I have him first overall.  Then once I take him at number one, I can’t take another player until the 24th pick, then choose two players within the next 24 picks, then 2 players in the next 24 picks and so on until the end of the top 100.  Just like a snake draft.  It would be nice if I was in a league where someone drafted Halladay, Verlander and Kershaw in the first round and I was able to take Longoria in the 2nd round, but since Miggy and him are in my first 10 picks, according to the rules I’ve set up for myself, I can’t take them both.  Then, as we all know, once you get into the 100′s, there’s wide gaps between ADP and where players are actually taken.  People tend to look at team need over value.  So for this exercise, once I get to pick #101, I’m going to pick two players every twenty picks, rather than every 24 picks.  That’s to account for the wide margin between ADP and where players are drafted.  Finally, because there is so much latitude in the last 100, I gave myself free reign to fill up my team.  Throughout the draft, I also gave myself the ability to reach to a lower draft pick, but not reach forward.  It should still be my ideal team… Or not.  Let’s see, shall we?  Bee tee dubya, this team is 5×5, one catcher, 5 OFs, MI, CI, 1 UT, 9 P, 3 Bench, just like the Razzball Commenter Leagues that are signing up still.  Anyway, here’s the best 2012 fantasy baseball team:

C: Joe Mauer (10)

1B:  Miggy Cabrera (1)

2B:  Chase Utley (5)

3B:  David Wright (2)

SS: Dee Gordon (15)

MI: Zack Cozart (16)

CI: Adam Lind (7)

OF:  Jay Bruce (3)

OF: Drew Stubbs (6)

OF: Andre Ethier (8)

OF: Torii Hunter (12)

OF: Lorenzo Cain (17)

UTIL: Chris Heisey (25)

P:  Madison Bumgarner (4)

P: Anibal Sanchez (9)

P: Matt Moore (11)

P: Jhoulys Chacin (13)

P: Ryan Madson (14)

P: Mike Minor (18)

P: Jordan Walden (19)

P: Kyle Farnsworth (20)

P: Brad Peacock (21)

BENCH:

P:  Ted Lilly (22)

P: Jim Johnson (23)

P: Aroldis Chapman (24)

So what do we learn from that in the most general sense?  You don’t have to draft pitchers early.  For those looking at my staff and thinking it won’t compete, my last year’s staff when I did this dream team post was:

P:  Jon Lester (5)

P: Dan Haren (8)

P: John Axford (13)

P: Daniel Hudson (12)

P: Jhoulys Chacin (14)

P: Chris Perez (15)

P: Craig Kimbrel (17)

P: Mike Minor (18)

P: Jordan Zimmermann (19)

BENCH:

P:  Ryan Madson (20)

P: Jason Motte (21)

P: Rafael Soriano (22)

You can switch Mike Minor out of there for Beachy too, because once he was in the rotation I switched the two of them on all of my teams.  As I’ve said in the past, I may not know a damn thing, but I can pick a pitching staff.  Seriously, Lester, Haren, Hudson and Chacin were all you needed.  Then you throw in Beachy, Madson, Kimbrel and Axford and you have 12′s in every pitching category.  And that’s not considering you could’ve dropped Soriano and picked up a great waiver wire guy.  This shows you that you need to really load up on hitters early, because, as much as you like that late-round-flyer man in the 18th round to be your corner guy, it’s probably not gonna work out for you.  Make sure you have at least two outfielders, a 2nd baseman, 3rd baseman and 1st baseman in the first ten rounds.  In my team above, I even reached way down for Ethier in the 8th round because I wanted to make sure I had an extra bat.  Also, I find myself grabbing Mauer this year to offset Stubbs and other average drains.  No one’s getting anything from catcher, so may as well get some average there if he comes at the right price.  I am not reaching for him.  If he’s there in the 9th to 10th rounds, great.  In the end, this really is just an exercise.  It’s fun though!  For me.  So what do you think of my fantasy fantasy team?  Don’t like it?  Go to the top 300 and make up your own fantasy fantasy team and post it in the comments.  Or not.  Decisions, decisions!