Obama Blog (via Mowser)

Thursday, February 9, 2012

GOP primary in state of disarray

Rick Santorum's sweep of Colorado, Minnesota and the non-binding Missouri caucuses show that Republicans are still very much unsure about who to pick for the November general election. While Santorum seems to have the momentum now, there is nothing yet that shows that Newt Gingrich might not again become the conservative favorite.

The situation is extremely favorable for the Obama campaign as, the way it looks now, the nomination might only become settled during the Republican convention. This means that the candidates and their super PACs will need to spend money fighting for each state.

That would mean less money left over to contest President Barack Obama in the general election. Additionally, the longer the candidates fight it out, the more negative ads served to the public. The campaign has become intensely negative to the point that it's depressing turnout. In Florida, for example, where Romney spent a small fortune on negative advertising, turnout was poor.

In comparison, while the 2008 Democratic primary was long and contentious, there was less negative campaigning overall and turnout was generally excellent in most states.

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Gingrich retakes frontrunner status

With Newt Gingrich's resounding victory in South Carolina tonight, he definitely moves into front runner status in my book. Just consider a few things.

South Carolina is a good barometer for voting in the entire American South. I am including delegate rich states like Texas as part of the "South." Even in states that do not have winner-take-all, Gingrich stands to gain many delegates throughout the South.

Then there are the conservative states in the Midwest and the "Rust Belt." Again, many of these states are loaded with delegates. With Sarah Palin's endorsement, he stands to do well in the northern states and all states with strong Tea Party infrastructure.

Now of course there could still be some campaign-crushing revelation that pops up and changes the course of the race, but for now I see Newt as the solid front-runner and the candidate to beat.

However, all indications points to a tough fight for the nomination that could last for a few more months at least. For the Obama campaign this is a good thing since it will mean that the super PACs will need to spend much of their money supporting their candidates rather than going after the president.

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Friday, January 20, 2012

Gingrich surging as South Carolina vote looms

Newt Gingrich is surging in South Carolina polls while Mitt Romney's campaign appears to be collapsing the day before the big primary.

I have viewed South Carolina as a 'king-maker' state ever since the 2008 primary and it could play the same role for the Republicans this time around unless it is a very close race. With Rick Perry dropping out of the race and conservatives appearing the recognize the need to rally around a single candidate, Rick Santorum's support appears to be drying up in the southern state.

Of the remaining conservatives, Gingrich seems to be picking up most of the votes from Perry and Santorum.

Sarah Palin thinks the interview with Gingrich's former wife just before the primary will actually help rather than hurt Newt. She may be right. Conservatives are generally suspicious of the "liberal" media and the timing of the interview may play into Gingrich's hands as he will be viewed as victimized by the "left."

If Gingrich wins, he will be in a good position to rally even more conservatives into his corner. When you do the math, it's obvious that the conservative candidates combined are well ahead of Gingrich in the overall vote count. In conservative Iowa, it appears that Santorum will actually come out the winner.

Should conservatives coalesce around Gingrich, he should become the favorite in many states where the Tea Party has established powerful get-out-the-vote machines.

Newt Gingrich's Explosive South Carolina GOP Debate

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Obama 2012 Campaign Strategy

In the Time article "The 15% Question: Why Mitt Romney's Tax Rate Matters," by Adam Sorenson, he shows why Romney's image may play an important role in Obama campaign strategy should the former Massachusetts governor win the nomination.

Obama's handlers are figuring out ways for the president to win enough electoral votes to take the election and part of the strategy will involve coming out with the right message. Recently, Obama's speeches have leaned more toward a populist approach in agreement with many of the sentiments of the Occupy movement.

Mitt Romney would make an excellent opponent for framing the issues around the growing conflict between the "99 percent" and the "1 percent."

Talking to reporters, Romney said that his tax rate is close to 15% because most of his earnings come from investments (capital gains). That means that basically he pays a lower rate than working lower middle class Americans despite having a fortune estimated at $250 million.

If that was not enough, a recent ABC report indicates that Romney is shielding millions of dollars of his wealth from US taxes through offshore accounts in the Cayman Islands.

Expect to see these issues resurface should Romney win the nomination. Also, expect to see the video of Romney claiming in Iowa that corporations are people played repeatedly by Obama supporters if not the campaign itself, if an Obama-Romney match-up occurs.

An Obama campaign strategy centered around a populist message will appeal to many voters still hurting from a slowly-recovering economy against the backdrop of a Republican Party that seems not to care much about creating jobs for Americans.

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Romney critic on Bain Capital resurfaces

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Gingrich super PAC releases anti-Romney movie

Supporters of Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich are letting go with all guns blazing against front-runner Mitt Romney by releasing a 28-minute movie depicting Romney as a ruthless corporate raider.

Romney used the term "creative destruction" to describe the tactic of closing businesses for profit. He stated that in order for the "economy to thrive as ours does there are a lot of people who will suffer as a result of that."

The pro-Gingrich super-PAC Winning Our Future financed the film, which is titled "When Mitt Romney came to Town," and from various reports, it appears they will air it bit-by-bit in short ad spots in South Carolina before the Jan. 21 primary.

Here is the movie broken into two parts on YouTube:

[ http://www.youtube.com/embed/KrKlj4Q3nSQ?rel=0 ]

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Romney wins New Hampshire primary

Mitt Romney has won the New Hampshire primary with Ron Paul coming in second and Jon Huntsman in third place.

The outcome was not unexpected giving Romney's wide lead in the polls. All attention will now turn to South Carolina, which has acted as a litmus test for nominee candidates in recent times.

Campaign manager Jim Messina lays out the various paths that President Obama can take to win the presidential election in November.