I can't believe I haven't mentioned this site on here. In short, if you want to learn how to play the game the right way, you need to bookmark this site ASAP. There are tons of great minds that are always willing to help (and debate) you with anything baseball related. There are waiver wire forums, mock drafts, awesome articles.....basically anything you can think of. If you are serious about succeeding in the fantasy game, you need to go to Fantasy Baseball Cafe pronto.

It's July 19.....and Robinson Cano is beginning to heat up again. Congratulations to those who made the move, and to those who were patient with him....your intelligence has paid off.

Joe Saunders is struggling today against Boston. Don't be surprised if I am writing something similar for the rest of the season.

Ryan Braun's LHP splits were a bit disappointing so far this year. He's 2-2 today against San Fran's Jonathan Sanchez. Thinking Braun (and the rest of the MIL offense) is going to have a huge second half.

Sabermetrics can help your fantasy team. A lot of people, however, don't really seem to know how. Now that we have refreshable saber stats at Yahoo!, players should be able to make effective changes to their squad using these tables as a valuable resource. For starters, there's one combination of saber stats that seems to be foolproof when evaluating the future value of a certain hitter:

High Contact % + low BABIP + above average BB/K rate = future jump in output

Simple idea here. If a player is constantly making contact, but getting few base hits on balls in play, logically their batting average should rise given their strikeout rate remains somewhat constant (the high BB/K rate). In early May, Jason Giambi fit these requirements to a tee. His BABIP was somewhere near .150, yet he was walking a decent amount while striking out at a very low rate for a power hitter. Since I've picked him up, his BA has jumped well over 50 points and he has provided great power statistics for my team.

One player that presently fits this profile is Robinson Cano, another Yankee. Cano's second half tears are well documented, and looking at his current statistics, it seems as if he is almost certain to do the same. His contact rate is at a mind-boggling 91%, yet his BABIP is only .248. He doesn't walk much, but he barely strikes out as well. We could go a little further and hypothesize that his very low Line Drive% (15.6) should also rise towards the league average of 20%, likely leading to better power numbers.

Other players to target using this formula: Adrian Beltre (another second half stud), Edwin Encarnacion, Ken Griffey Jr., Kenji Johjima (questionable playing time with Clement though), Paul Konerko

Again, saber stats can help your team, but don't forget that they are only indicators. They can tell you what the law of averages is predicting, but that's as far as it goes.

I am finicky with my starting pitchers. There is no other way to say it. While many others prefer to stack their lineups with as many starters as possible, in most leagues I prefer to run a five or six man rotation using pitchers that I have studied hard and generally trust. So when I decided to pick up Dave Bush after his latest gem, I had to convince myself it was a move worth making.

Being lauded in fantasy circles is nothing new for Bush. He's a sabermetrician's dream: an efficient pitcher who sports a high K/BB ratio and incredibly low WHIP. As most fantasy players know, however, the results haven't really been there. However, he's turned a new leaf in the last month, averaging over 7 innings a start and walking practically nobody. The question, as always, is if this is a Daniel Cabrera-type mirage or a legitimate move into fantasy relevance. I'll break him down step-by-step.

Miller Park tends to slightly cater to pitchers over batters, but doesn't explain the discrepancy in Bush's career home and road splits. Bush, for one, doesn't have a clue why. "I've always been better at home throughout my career, for whatever the reason," Bush said. "I wish I knew the answer. I'd take it on the road with me". Either way, this follows his career trends, so I'd say that while he's a sure bet at home, you might want to avoid starting him away against solid offensive teams. Even as his numbers have improved as the season has gone on, he's continued to struggle on the road, and there's no reason to see this changing, so play accordingly.

Looking at his pitch selection and use, we get our first indication that the new Bush might be for real. Looking at his 2007 pitching stats compared to 2008, we see that Bush, much like Justin Duchscherer, has changed his pitch repertoire. He's relying much more on a change piece that seems to move a lot better this year (explanation for the pitch f/x newbies can be found here):

2007:



2008:



Notice that he's completely disposed of his cut-fastball, which by looking at the movement statistics seems like it wasn't doing him much good anyways. His fastball speed has decreased and the movement increased and he's throwing the change with much more frequency in two strike counts. Interestingly enough, I studied his Colorado game pitch by pitch and was surprised to see that most of his strikeouts were via the fastball:



These results defeated the hypothesis I had developed after looking at his player cards. Given that he was starting to rely more on the changeup in two strike counts (and in general), I had expected to see him racking up the Ks using that pitch. I figured this because one would expect that he was becoming more and more comfortable with it and was starting to be able to use it in a more effective manner. This seems to be a winning formula for the game's best strikeout pitchers. However, not once did this happen, leading me to believe that the 13 strikeouts were more of an aberration than anything. 13 Ks are an abnormal amount for almost any pitcher, and there's little evidence to believe he will continue to rack up big K games. If you're picking him up thinking he's going to strike out 7 or 8 every start, it seems likely you will be let down.

Going further into the numbers, it's worth noting that while Bush's walk numbers have risen a bit this year, it has considerably slowed down over the last couple months. Again, this seems like more a result of a transitioning phase using his new change piece, a tough pitch to learn how to control.

The sabermetrics are not the best news. A BABIP of .259 combined with an average strikeout rate (right around 6) means there should be some regression based on the law of averages. However, with the possibility of a rising K rate we might be able to ignore what looks to be an impending correction. We also can't forget the improvement in control and the effect it might have.

Keep digging though, and you'll see that he's been fairly unlucky with runners on base. His LOB% (as you can see below) is below the league average:



This should change in Bush's favor as he continues to keep the pitch counts low and avoids the free passes.

It's the factors that are beyond his control that I like the most. Bush has been receiving a solid 5.74 runs of support when he pitches, and I see this continuing. Milwaukee's offense has begun to heat up with Hardy getting healthy and Prince starting to hit homers. Rickie Weeks has also been a great second half player, and there are plenty of reasons to think that their offense will put up great numbers in the second half. Bush should see more wins in the future.

Looking at Milwaukee's schedule going forward, Bush also has a lot of favorable matchups. There are home series against Washington, San Diego and Pittsburgh and Milwaukee takes the road against the three same teams. They will also face Cincinnati (two home, two road) and Los Angeles (one road). Some seem to have a problem predicting future success based solely on future opponents, but not me. It's much like the game of poker in that nobody knows what is going to happen, but when the statistics are there and you continually make what is perceived as the "right play", you are going to hit it big more often than not. Given all of these statistics, would you feel more confident if Bush was pitching in the AL East? I didn't think so.

Overall, I am going to recommend picking up Bush in any format, basically because he's pitching the way he's always been predicted to. He has a Lincecum-like curve (Tim's is faster, but compare the movements) and is starting to rack up more strikeouts. Whether or not that will continue is something we obviously can't determine, but his location has historically been strong and with new pitches it seems as if he's coming into his own. Milwaukee is a team capable of scoring a bunch of runs and the schedule is favorable. Do it.

Carlos Delgado since last Sunday: 6/15 with 2 HR and 5 RBI......just saying...

Moving along to shortstop and third base for today there are some solid second half plays you should be looking at.

Shortstop:

Alexei Ramirez (CHW):

WTF you say? He doesn't even play shortstop! This is correct. However, he's only 3 appearances at the position away from being eligible in Yahoo! leagues. That's how high I am on this guy. I'll hype him up at a position he's not even eligible for. Everything about him screams Alfie Soriano. The lanky build....the bat speed.....the quickness on the basepaths....even the swings are somewhat similar. Outside of his first month in the majors, he has played at a high level. He drove in 17 runs last month and is playing in a park suited for his abilities. The Chicago offense is starting to heat up and if Ramirez continues to play the way he has since May, he should see a better spot in the order.

Jimmy Rollins (PHI):

If there was ever a time to significantly improve your SS position, now would be the time, and Rollins would be the guy. He's hitting around .270 with only 6 homers this year....leading off for the best offense in baseball and in one of the game's premier homer parks. I see Rollins as a prime-time breakthrough candidate in the second half just because he's too good to be playing at his current level.

I'll do third base sometime this weekend.

I haven't written a post about myself in quite a while. I focus most of my time on my 8-man money league keeper, a league where I have finished 2, 1 and 4 in the last three years. Ironically enough, the roster I fielded last year was easily my best. If roto instead of H2H, I would have won by almost 20 points....but thus is the life of a head-to-head junkie

I'll write a quick ditty on each of the trades I have made, when they were put through and how I feel about them right now on a sad to happy scale:

1.

My Johnny Damon for his Joe Blanton

Grade: No emotional response

Neither player is on my team. I would have been better off keeping Damon, but his injury problems might not go away, so I am not really starving for him right now. If he had stayed healthy, this could have been a mistake

2.

My Orlando Cabrera for his Edwin Encarnacion

Grade:



I really liked this trade initially as a speculative move. I wasn't really enamored with Cabrera and had only drafted him because he fell to me really late. Encarnacion was primed for a breakout season and seemed certain to contribute significantly, so I sat him on my bench. About a month into the season, he had a two-week stretch where he seemed to be coming into a zone, but quickly faded out after that. I have since dropped him and been very disappointed with the performance of Renteria (my new shortstop).....meaning I could really use Cabrera, who has arguably been a top-five producer at SS in the last month.

3.

My Brett Myers for his Billy Wagner

Grade: Peanut-butter jelly time

Myers was a speculative draft move....much like Cabrera, he fell way too far for where I had him on my draft sheet. Another guy in my league really liked Myers, and given that I never pay for saves (the cardinal fantasy rule), I didn't mind moving Myers after he looked horrible in his first two starts. Initially, the rate the other player was pursuing Myers forced me to hesitate into making a move; I assumed there must have been something I hadn't read about him that he had, or something along those lines. Eventually, I said "F it" and got who I believed to be a borderline top-5 closer.

Breaking news (not really): Brett Myers doesn't pitch in the majors anymore. In other news, I am officially a genius. Highway robbery at its best.

4.

My Miguel Tejada and Evan Longoria for his Ichiro Suzuki and Edgar Renteria

Grade: Almost meh, but now more PB&J

Initially, this trade was so lopsided in my favor that I fell out of my chair in the library when it was OFFERED TO ME. Ichiro is normally a top-20 player, and was this player's third round pick. I'll take a third round pick for my tenth and a FA pickup anyday....and that's without Renteria, who looked good in a Tigers uniform. Fast forward to now and I have since dropped Renteria, and Longoria has blown up in the last month. Tejada has since been traded again and has slowed down considerably since his hot start. Ichiro was the major league leader in steals for a while, and his average hovered around .290, and I got tired of him.

Mid-trade note: My league format is unique to say the least. We run a 5X5 with OPS, BB, TB and Ks against offensively. Given this, you can see that Ichiro isn't necessarily that valuable in our format. He doesn't contribute in HR, RBI, OPS, TB, BB at all, so if he's not hitting .350 and stealing bases, he's practically worthless.

So as I said, I got tired of him and started shopping him. I almost had a deal to get Aramis Ramirez, but he preceded to hit 3 homers in two days that the offer was quickly gone. Instead.....

5.

My Ichiro Suzuki for his Mark Teixiera

Grade: Happy Happy Joy Joy

Let's count the reasons why Mark Teixiera should have a great second half.

One, he hit 17 homers in 54 games last year in Atlanta and has historically been a second half beast.

Two, he has a guy nearly hitting .400 in front of him, providing perhaps the greatest protection ever yielded to men with bats.

Three, he's a free agent after the season is over and is playing for big money.

Four, he told us he was going to get better as the season went on.

I could keep going, but the point has been made. I threw this trade up without even really thinking about it. I figured it would get rejected, but here I am, instantly reaping the benefits of 7 homers and 16 ribbies since the trade. Given this guy is sapped for power and is chock full of players who struggle in the second half (Morneau comes to mind), I don't know if I will ever figure out the reasoning. Ichiro has since heated up in the average department, but with no extra base hits, and one stolen base. Again, in a 5X5 format, this would be sweet, but again he's not providing in a power-based custom format.

6.

My Brian Bannister for his Matt Capps

Grade: Prick smirk

Bannister is the ultimate matchups pitcher.......start him during the day at home and you're set! He came out firing to begin the season, and my inner voice immediately told me to sell high. Why wouldn't I? Low k rate, had a huge BABIP, it was almost too easy. So when a member of my league talked about punting saves, I told him I'd give him Bannister for his worst closer. I think he thought he made the right deal, but Capps wasn't his worst closer. When healthy, Capps is a borderline top-10 closer...you just don't ever hear of him because he pitches in the Steel City. Bannister's ERA has gone up over three runs since the trade, and Capps was a great asset for me most of the year. Now his shoulder's all hurt and I am speculating on Marte because he's a solid lefty with a small amount of closing experience. I'd still easily take Marte over Bannister, so I feel good about this trade.

So far, it's been a pretty solid year for me via the trade. As long as you do it correctly, there's really no disadvantage to wheeling and dealing. Just do it responsibly.

If you're reading this, you probably missed out on buying low on Robbie Cano (3 multi-hit games this week, 2 homers, 7 RBIs). As somebody that makes sure Cano is on every team before July, I'd be willing to bet this was your last chance. Too bad, you can stick with Uggla, his bum ankle and the impending drop in average. Cano is the buy-low poster child because of his second half explosions. I somewhat regret drafting him this year instead of waiting and trading for him, but now that I am in first place his crap first half doesn't matter. Here now is a comprehensive list of buy-lows at each position. My definition of a buy-low is simple: paying less for a player that will start to perform at their usual career level sometime in the near future.

Catcher:

Victor Martinez- Yup, he's hurt. Yup, he won't be back for a while. Yup, you could probably get him for practically nothing right now. Yup, the guy you will take him from probably drafted him within the first five rounds. He might have been reaching, but you won't be because the owner is probably pissed enough at him to trade him at a low price. If your team is in the playoff hunt, getting a top-5 catcher coming down the stretch might put your team over the top.

Nothing else really at catcher. Most catchers are performing about where most people thought they would at this point.

First Base:

Carlos Pena- Just got back from injury. He looks like (and has played like) his great year last year was one of a fluke. As somebody who watched him flounder in Detroit, I'd tend to agree, except that he's being put in the middle of a suddenly dangerous Tampa Bay lineup and had a monster second half last year. If you're starving for power, he's cheap right now and worth the risk.

Todd Helton- Colorado has struggled so far this year, and Helton's season seems to be the embodiment of it. Holliday is healthy though, Hawpe finally pulled his head out of his ass and the NL West (as always) is up for grabs. Helton rebounding is next. He's not the sexiest fantasy player anymore, but last year in September he hit nearly .400 and drove in 20 runs. I was fortunate enough to find him cheap and his hitting nearly won me a championship. Somewhat of a sentimental pick, but one of the best hitters of our generation is certainly capable of doing it again this year.

Carlos Delgado- Another great second half player. His best month is August, where he's hit 77 career homers in a little less than 300 games. Last year, he hit .285 with 10 homers in only 56 games after the All-Star break. David Wright is a notorious second half player, so it can't hurt Delgado's pitch choice later in the season. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if he was available right now in your league. If that's the case, and you are looking for easy power, wait a few weeks on him and pick him up after the break. Yes, he's old, but he's been a good hitter for a long time, and given he just drove in nine runs the other night, he's still capable of putting up some good numbers.

First base is a pretty deep position. I'd guess the more obvious buy-low first baseman have passed their premium buy period. Guys like Howard and Teixiera will no longer come at the prices they would have a couple weeks ago. If you missed on them, these three guys should do you well. A couple others to think about might be Alex Gordon and Ryan Garko....two young players that have disappointed to an extent so far.

Second Base:

Mark Ellis- If you're looking for power at a thin position, Ellis is a great play. 13 more career homers after the break in about 40 less games while hitting about 30 points higher. He hit 11 after the break last year and like Helton drove in 20 runs in September. The pressure to play well in Oakland will likely be there again this year as the A's could compete for the AL Wild Card given their pitching continues to be at the current level. I've always been an Ellis fan and am happy with his second half results in deeper formats.

Howie Kendrick- No doubt that Kendrick is an injury risk. He's quickly becoming the Rich Harden of positional players, a young player full of potential that can't seem to stay healthy long enough to become a big star. It's for that reason, that owners are starting to give up on Kendrick early. He's owned in my 8-man keeper only because I basically told the owner that he needed to roster him in case he blew up, which he's more than capable of. Try to do the same, but offer low and create a high risk/reward situation.

Rickie Weeks- Everybody Hates Rickie Weeks. Sounds like a television show.....anyways Weeks is a frustrating player who probably has more all-around potential than Kendrick does, but he disappoints with performance AND injury. However.....take a look at his career second half splits and you'll see some solid performance. He had a monster September last year, with 10 homers (!) and 9 steals and got on base constantly. He's talented enough to do it again.

Others to think about: Ty Wigginton and Jeff Kent

I'll continue on Tuesday or Wednesday....