Braves Journal

The Braves apparently were willing to trade Minor during the season last year, but wound up not having to. I think that some teams are going to regret not taking them up on the offer, because Minor looks really promising to me, and I think he’s going to be a front half of the rotation starter for a number of years.

Minor’s ERA was a little worse than the league (4.14, 92 ERA+) but we’re talking a lefty who as a rookie struck out 8.4 per nine and didn’t have any real home run problems. His one concern was that he walked more than you’d like, 30 in 82 2/3 innings. As he gets more experience and confidence in his stuff, that will come down, because he doesn’t really have bad control but a slight tendency to nibble.

Minor’s by-inning splits may be instructive. He had problems in the first inning, allowing a 6.00 ERA and a .328 batting average. (Don’t compare him to Tom Glavine, it’s not healthy.) In the next three innings, his ERAs allowed were 1.80, 3.60, and 1.20. But in the fifth, it skyrocketed to 6.75, and if he got through that it was 6.48 in the sixth. You can blame Fredi for not getting him out of there — you can always blame Fredi — but it’s hard to get too angry at a manager for not being ready to yank his starter in the fifth inning. What I think happens is that Minor has trouble finishing batters off, and winds up throwing extra pitches in those first four innings, which both tires him out and lets hitters see more of his repertoire. By the third time through the order, they’re ready to tee off. As time goes by, Minor will learn how to avoid this… Had a reverse split, by the way, lefties hitting 37 points higher and slugging 63 points higher than righties.

Mike Minor Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Could he be the opening day starter? It seems possible, with Hudson, Jurrjens, and Hanson all questionable. He might be the best choice anyway. Beachy’s the inverse of Jurrjens, in that his 2011 ERA of 3.67 was pedestrian, but his strikeout rate of 10.7 was phenomenal — actually, it would have led the league had he qualified. His walk rate was a shade high, but nothing too drastic (and spiked by too many intentional walks), and his homers about average. It was an outstanding rookie season overshadowed by others on the same team.

The scouting book on Beachy was that he didn’t have the velocity of a top-tier starter, but no matter how hard he threw his fastball it was a devastating pitch, and he was able to throw three other pitchers effectively. There’s no reason I can see to think he can’t continue to be effective, and to build upon his success so far, except that he’s not “supposed” to. I’m excited to see what he can do next, and just hope he can stay healthy.

Oddly, he’s been a comically bad hitter (.083 career average) even though he was mostly a position player in college.

Brandon Beachy Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Tommy’s career may be in danger. Shoulder problems, such as cost him about half the season, are always bad news. Vague, undiagnosed shoulder problems in a pitcher whose mechanics have always been considered suspect? That’s bad news on the “Archduke Franz Ferdinand has been shot” level.

It looked like Hanson was having a breakthrough season. On July 9, he had a 2.44 ERA, was 12-5, and was striking out better than a man an inning, though he was left off of the All-Star team for no good reason. Then he hit a rough patch, with two terrible starts followed by two barely quality starts, then was shut down. Originally he just needed a little rest, and then he needed more, then he was a rehab start away, and soon enough he’d missed the last two months of the season and they still didn’t have a real diagnosis. They still don’t. All they say is that he has pain in his right scapula, his shoulder blade, making him one of two Braves (with Martin Prado) to have something I have. Hopefully his pain isn’t caused by the same thing as mine.

If he’s healthy, and the pain isn’t something major that will reoccur, he’s ready to be an ace. He’s 25 years old, took a big step forward in his strikeout rate last year, and only had one bad start — that borderline — before getting hurt. A healthy Hanson is almost as big of a key as a healthy Tim Hudson for the Braves in 2011.

Tommy Hanson Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

After an offseason dominated by trade rumors (the first suggestion on Google for him is “Jair Jurrjens trade”) it looks like Jurrjens will stay with the Braves after they didn’t get the offers they were expecting. It is hard to say how much of this is a value disconnect and how much is due to Jurrjens’ injuries; I suspect the latter is more important but I wouldn’t be surprised if many teams think he’s not as good as his ERAs.

His ERAs are very good; a career 3.40 works out to a 120 ERA+, and last year’s 2.90 would have been good for ninth in the league had he qualified. For most of the first half of the season, he ranked as one of the best pitchers in the league, if not the best, with a 1.87 ERA through July 7, and while he made the All-Star team he probably should have started. After the break, he did not pitch well and then went on the DL with pain in his right knee, which had already preempted the start of his season. He tried to come back but didn’t pitch well, or at all after mid-August. After being a workhorse his first two years as a Brave, Jair has made only 43 starts in the last two seasons combined. The only good news is that a knee injury seems like something that should be fixable.

The real elephant in the room is Jurrjens’ strikeout rate. Even when he was pitching well last year it was only about six per nine, and for the season it was a ghastly 5.3. Jurrjens has survived by limiting home runs and by making improvements in his walk rate, but 5.3 is getting really low. I don’t know of a righthanded pitcher in the last thirty years who’s been able to pitch at an all-star level with a strikeout rate like that; few have been able to even survive. And basically, that’s why it was a good idea to shop Jurrjens.

Jair Jurrjens Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Do you realize that Tim is third among active pitchers in wins, fourth if you count Jamie Moyer? True. (And he could be second if Moyer and Tim Wakefield don’t pitch in 2012.) He could get to 200 wins this year if the Braves score for him — he’s at 181. He’s also third in shutouts, with twelve, which is just baseball trying to make me feel old again.

Of course, he needs to be able to pitch to get to 200 wins, and he’s doubtful to start the season after back surgery. They say that he’ll be fine, but backs are tricky things, and also say they won’t rush him. If he’s healthy, the Braves’ rotation should be strong; if he’s not, it’s hard to see who will pick up his innings, all that young talent or no. The two biggest keys to the Braves’ season are Hudson and Heyward.

As for 2011, he had a pretty typical Tim Hudson season, going 16-10 (he averages 16-9 per 162 games) with a 3.22 ERA. His peripherals were actually greatly improved from his 2010 Cy Young candidate season, with homers and walks down and strikeouts up — his strikeouts per nine were actually his highest since his third year in the majors. I would suggest that his ERA went up because the Braves’ infield defense was so much worse than in 2010. Led the league in hit batsmen with 15.

Tim Hudson Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

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If something bad happens to McCann or Ross, the Braves will turn to J.C. Boscan as their next option. In other words, nothing better happen to McCann or Ross. Boscan has 15 years of minor league ball behind him, mostly in the Braves organization, and has absolutely proven he can’t hit. His career line is .224/.311/.307, so at least he’ll take a walk. Another catcher with an NRI is minor league lifer Jose Yepez, a career .270/.357/.387 hitter in the Blue Jays and Mariners organziations. The Braves keep getting players who can’t hit from those teams. It’s a sickness. There are always lots of catchers around in spring training and I’m sure they’ll take a long look at Christian Bethancourt, and maybe Braeden Schlehuber. I wouldn’t expect much. Evan Gattis, who quit baseball, came back to play in college, and was drafted by the Braves in 2010, is a great story and hit .322/.386/.601 with 22 homers last year in Rome, but he was old for the league (24, average hitter age 21.4) and very suspect defensively.

By my count there’s a spot left open for one more infielder on the bench. The only infielder left on the 40-man is Brandon Hicks; it says a lot that I think he might be the best choice as the starting shortstop. Not that I think Hicks is likely to be good, though in his second short major league stint last year he looked a lot less like someone who just picked up a bat for the first time a few days ago. It’s a comment more on the alternatives. Hicks actually hit an intriguing .252/.333/.446 for Gwinnett last year, highlighted by 18 homers, and if he could maintain those secondary skills and field well, he’d be a useful player. I don’t have much hope of that.

Hicks will compete with a couple of NRIs (unless the Braves sign someone else) for that last roster spot. Wanting to corner the market on bad infielders named “Wilson”, the Braves signed veteran Josh Wilson to a minor league contract. He’s like Jack without the couple of good years or the past as a great glove man. He’s hit .227/.279/.318, playing for seven teams in five years. He must be doing something right or teams wouldn’t keep employing him, but it’s pretty obvious what he’s doing wrong so they keep getting rid of him. Drew Sutton, another NRI, is a bit more intriguing. A career .280/.378/.437 hitter in the minors, he’s hit .258/.322/.403 in limited action for three teams in the majors over the last three years. He somewhat resembles Brooks Conrad (and has also spent a lot of time in the Astros organization) but is supposedly a better fielder who can sort-of play shortstop. Andrelton Simmons also got an invite, but he’s years away if he ever arrives.

There wouldn’t seem to be a spot left over for an outfielder, barring injury, which is bad news for Jose Constanza. Constanza’s hot start last year was a fluke, and he cooled off considerably, but he can be a useful bench player for the right team. There are a couple more NRIs. Luis Durango has even less power than Constanza, but a career .403 OBP in the minors. My opinion, as I’ve stated before, is that this type of guy can’t succeed in the modern major leagues because pitchers will simply blow them away with fastballs because there’s no reason to fear they’ll hit a homer. Also, despite Durango’s speed, his career minor league stolen base record is poor (67%). There is also Jordan Parraz, one of those guys who looks okay in a lot of areas but doesn’t seem to have any really plus skills to recommend him. The Braves could also look at Mycal Jones, who is the closest thing to a position prospect left in the upper minors but hasn’t done anything yet to look like more than a possible fourth outfielder. Joe Terdoslavich may be a corner outfielder of the future, and has a camp invite, but the chances of him making the team in spring are very low.

So it’s come to this.

The Braves re-signed Wilson, picked up in a late-season trade last year, to be their primary infield backup even knowing that there was a good chance that with an untested rookie at shortstop that backup could become the regular, and that Wilson can’t hit. Wilson had a couple of good years in the middle of the last decade, but he’s 34 years old, has a career line of .266/.307/.368 (and .250/.285/.329 over the last three seasons) and is no longer the (superb) defensive player he used to be. The difference between Wilson and late-period Rafael Belliard is not great. He’s a serious minus player unless his glove bounces back to being a big plus; last year it was average.

Jack Wilson Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

I kept putting this off, but it sure looks like the Braves intend to make Pastornicky the starting shortstop to begin the year. Needless to say, simply handing a regular job to a rookie with no major league experience (he was on the roster at the end of the year but never appeared in a game) who is not considered an elite prospect is an unusual move. But the Braves are planning to. The chances of this being a disaster are very good, and with only Jack Wilson in reserve things could get very ugly at shortstop.

A fifth-round pick by the Blue Jays in 2008, Pastornicky came over in the Yunel Escobar trade/debacle and was not considered a key piece by most. He didn’t do very much for the Braves in 2010, but last year he hit .314 between Mississippi and Gwinnett, including .365 in 27 games in AAA. He didn’t walk a whole lot or hit for much power (isolated power an even .100, seven homers) and a lot of people are skeptical that he is really a .300 hitter. If he’s not a .300 hitter he’s going to be a drag on the lineup.

Defensively, looks more like a decent, middle-of-the-pack guy than a star, but the Braves seem to think more highly of him than most outside observers. In the end, needs to play well to be more than just a seatwarmer for Andrelton Simmons, who is not exactly A-Rod.

Tyler Pastornicky Minor League Statistics & History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Had a rough year by his standards, but that was basically because some singles didn’t drop. He’s one of the more effective bench players in baseball, a four-corners guy with an average bat, most of his offensive value coming in secondary skills (power and walks) rather than batting average. Hinske has had 584 plate appearances in his two years with the Braves, which is more than I thought or would have expected. In that slightly-less-than-a-full-season of work, he’s had 21 homers, 31 doubles, and 78 RBI, with most of his work coming as an outfielder or pinch-hitter. Some of Hinske’s value has usually come from his ability to play third base (not well, but not a lot worse than Chipper) but he has played the position only once with the Braves, off the bench in 2010. If Prado is traded, that might change… Actually used to run pretty well, is now really slow, and has attempted only one stolen base and hit one triple with the Braves.

Eric Hinske Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.

Brought back in a dumpster-diving trade at the eligibility deadline, Matt hit .286 in 37 PA in September. That’s nice, but it’s a small sample size and also he had just one walk and just one extra-base hit, a double. I love the guy, but he turns 34 in March and his overall line last year was .263/.302/.323. He didn’t hit a single home run in 268 PA. Maybe he will bounce back, and I certainly hope so, but I never did expect him to age well, and he has to add a lot — like 40 points of batting average and 100 points or so of isolated power — to be a useful player. The Braves could eat his contract, but I don’t expect them to.

A better defensive player than he’s usually given credit for. He was actually one of the better and faster baserunners on the team in his first stint in Atlanta, but that probably isn’t so anymore.

Matt Diaz Statistics and History – Baseball-Reference.com.