Advanced Fantasy Baseball

It began in July 2010, when he took over as interim general manager in Arizona upon Josh Byrnes' dismissal, then eased the D-backs' payroll, restocked their barren farm system and put them on the path to an eventual playoff berth with the savvy trades of Edwin Jackson, Chris Snyder and Dan Haren (now the Angels' No. 2 starter).

It happened through two interviews with Angels owner Arte Moreno and president John Carpino, who met Dipoto over breakfast and dinner in Arizona and ultimately chose him over a wide-ranging list of candidates.

And it happened on a grease board at his Winter Meetings suite, where it took Dipoto only 20 minutes to impress even the saltiest of scouts.

"Some of the guys that had been around for a while came out of there just in awe saying, 'Man, that's unbelievable,' and, 'We're in such good hands,' said Tim Schmidt, who worked for Dipoto in Arizona and is now one of his special-assignment scouts. "I look at them and say, 'Oh geez, guys, he's just getting started. He's got a lot more than that.'"

He had plenty more in the January organizational meetings he set up at the club's Spring Training site in Tempe, Ariz. Scott Servais, one of Dipoto's new assistant general managers, was in charge of putting together the agenda and needed to fill three hours. He figured Dipoto would take up one of them, so Servais was looking for somebody to open and close the day-one session.

No need. Dipoto took up the entire time breaking down his philosophies for constructing a 25- and 40-man roster.

"There was not one person who left those meetings there for two days and couldn't feel the energy and the passion he has for doing the job and taking the time to kind of pull back the curtain," Servais said

Montero, 22, will likely play catcher several games a week and designated hitter the rest of the time as the Mariners look to get his potent bat in the lineup. There have been questions about whether he's ready to be a Major League catcher, but manager Eric Wedge -- himself a former backstop -- says so far, so good.

"I watch him catch and work the drills and do everything," Wedge said Friday after the Mariners wrapped up the pitchers and catchers portion of camp. "He's going to continue to work and get better. But he's looked well so far. There are always things you feel you can help a young player with and he's no different. Because we're not in a hurry with it, [catching and third-base coach] Jeff Datz will do a fantastic job with it and they'll develop that bond and working relationship day to day. He's handling himself well."

To tease us, the Nationals brought back Strasburg for a five-start stretch that saw him post a 9.0 strikeout-per-nine rate and two walks. That’s two walks, period! His FIP in this vacuum was an unbelievable 1.28. To go along with those ridiculous stats, he was also the best pitcher in the game from the moment he made start number one to the end of the 2011 season.

That combined with what I’ve seen as far as skills, pedigree, and scouting grade makes him the most valuable keeper prospect I’ve seen in years if not ever. I love Kershaw. I have him as my number one starter next year. I also think that Kershaw should outperform Strasburg in 2012. But as a “Keeperâ€, Strasburg will dominate this list, health-permitting, for 2013 and beyond.

I think we can all agree, both starters are incredibly desirable in keeper/dynasty formats. In general, I tend to slant toward hitters in these formats over pitchers, and in submitting my rankings to Nick, mentioned that it physically pained me to include three pitchers in the top 4. That said, those pitchers are tremendous.

With that in mind, if I’m going to start a dynasty league roster with a pitcher, I’m shooting the moon. Someone addressed Strasburg’s conditioning above, and that is an issue of the past, as another reader was quick to point out. As far as mechanics go, I’m beginning to believe mechanics experts may not know their… from a a hole in the ground. Obviously, it is probably better for a pitcher to have a low effort delivery than a high effort one. Beyond that, I’m starting to lean in the direction of some pitchers being built to pile up innings, and other not. So far, Kershaw has shown the skill and good fortune of remaining healthy to rack up innings pitched, and Strasburg has not. But, I don’t think that means there is no risk of Kershaw breaking down. Pitching is inherently bad for the shoulder/arm/elbow.

When both pitchers are healthy, there is no argument that Strasburg has been the better pitcher. Yes, he has just 7 starts under his belt, but in those seven starts he has been better in all three facets of controllable pitcher skills. His K/9 is nearly two full batters higher than Kershaw’s in his career, and more impressively, his K% is 6.6% better. Kershaw has made strides in both marks, but still lags behind Strasburg. Kershaw also trails Strasburg in walk rate, and ground ball rate. Kershaw had his best walk rate by a wide margin this year, but it was also his first year below 3.50 BB/9. Maybe he’ll sustain that, but maybe he won’t. Comparatively, Strasburg’s walk rate in his healthy rookie debut was 2.25 BB/9, and was better post Tommy John surgery at 0.75 BB/9 (which is not sustainable).

The potentially bigger gap could come in groundball rate. Prior to his injury, Strasburg sported a 47.8 percent groudball rate. Post surgery he had a flyball centric approach, so there are questions about where he’ll land on that spectrum. At this point in Kershaw’s career, though, it looks like his groundball rate is safe to project in the low-40 percent range (was up to 43.2 percent in 2011, a mark that was better than those in 2009 and 2010).

All-in-all, the total package favors Strasburg. To neglect to acknowledge there is a health risk attached to him would be wrong, but just how much greater is that risk that Kershaw? I’m not sure that can be quantified, plenty of pitchers have returned from TJ and not had further health issues. The biggest question for me was answered when he got back to the big leagues this past season.